HomeMy WebLinkAbout2018-07-23 City Council Workshop Packet
PLEASENOTESTARTTIME
PLEASENOTESTARTTIME
AGENDA
MAPLEWOOD CITY COUNCIL
MANAGER WORKSHOP
5:30P.M. Monday,July 23, 2018
City Hall, Council Chambers
A.CALL TO ORDER
B.ROLL CALL
C.APPROVAL OF AGENDA
D.UNFINISHED BUSINESS
None
E.NEW BUSINESS
1.Settlement Agreement with Ramsey Washington Suburban Cable Commission –
Intent to Close Pursuant to Minnesota Statutes §13D.05, subd. 3(b), Attorney-Client
Privilege
2.Rush Line Planning Update and North End Market Study Discussion
F.ADJOURNMENT
RULES OF CIVILITY FOR THE CITY COUNCIL, BOARDS, COMMISSIONS AND OUR COMMUNITY
Following are rules of civility the City of Maplewood expects of everyone appearingat Council Meetings -
elected officials, staff and citizens. It is hoped that by following these simple rules, everyone’s opinions can be
heard and understood in a reasonable manner. We appreciate the fact that when appearing at Council
meetings, it is understood that everyone will follow these principles:
Speak only for yourself, not for other council members or citizens -unless specifically tasked by your
colleagues to speak for the group or for citizens in the form of a petition.
Show respect during comments and/or discussions, listen actively and do not interrupt or talk amongst each
other.
Be respectful of the process, keeping order and decorum. Do not be critical of council members, staff or others
in public.
Be respectful of each other’s time keeping remarks brief, to the point and non-repetitive.
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CITY COUNCIL WORKSHOPSTAFF REPORT
Meeting Date July 23, 2018
REPORT TO:
City Council
REPORT FROM:Melinda Coleman, City Manager
PRESENTER:
Melinda Coleman, City Manager
John Boyle, Attorney
AGENDA ITEM:
Settlement Agreement with Ramsey Washington Suburban Cable
Commission – Intent to Close Pursuant to Minnesota Statutes §13D.05,
subd. 3(b), Attorney-Client Privilege
Action Requested:MotionDiscussionPublic Hearing
Form of Action:ResolutionOrdinanceContract/AgreementProclamation
Policy Issue:
Staff recommends the City Council close the regular meeting and proceed into a closed session to
discuss the consideration of a Settlement Agreement related to the City’s litigation againstthe
Ramsey Washington Suburban Cable Commission.
Recommended Action:
Motion to proceed to the closed session: Motion to close the regular meeting pursuant to
Minnesota Statutes §13D.05, subd. 3(b), attorney-client privilege, to discuss pending litigation and
Settlement Agreement related to the Ramsey Washington Suburban Cable Commission.
Fiscal Impact:
Is There a Fiscal Impact?NoYes, the true or estimated cost isTBD at closed session.
Financing source(s):Adopted BudgetBudget ModificationNew Revenue Source
Use of Reserves Other:Discussed at closed session.
Strategic Plan Relevance:
Financial SustainabilityIntegrated CommunicationTargeted Redevelopment
Operational EffectivenessCommunity InclusivenessInfrastructure & Asset Mgmt.
N/A
Background
More information provided duringthe meeting.
Attachments
None
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CITY COUNCIL WORKSHOPSTAFF REPORT
Meeting Date July 23, 2018
REPORT TO:
Melinda Coleman, City Manager
REPORT FROM:DuWayne Konewko, Environmental & Economic Development Director
PRESENTER:
DuWayne Konewko, Environmental & Economic Development Director
AGENDA ITEM:Rush Line Planning Update and North End Market Study Discussion
Action Requested:MotionDiscussionPublic Hearing
Form of Action:ResolutionOrdinanceContract/AgreementProclamation
Policy Issue:
The city’s Draft 2040 Comprehensive Plan identified the North End as an area needing extra study
and visioning while also necessitating coordination with the development of the Rush Line transit
project. As a first step, the city contracted with Perkins+Will to conduct a market study of this area
of Maplewood. At the July23 workshop, representatives from Ramsey County and Perkins+Will will
lead a discussion regarding this significant area of the city.
Recommended Action:
No action required.
Fiscal Impact:
Is There a Fiscal Impact?NoYes, the true or estimated cost is$18,500.
Financing source(s):Adopted BudgetBudget ModificationNew Revenue Source
Use of Reserves Other:EDA Fund
Strategic Plan Relevance:
Financial SustainabilityIntegrated CommunicationTargeted Redevelopment
Operational EffectivenessCommunity InclusivenessInfrastructure & Asset Mgmt.
The city’s Draft 2040 Comprehensive Plan calls out the North End region of Maplewood as an area
of opportunity to do additional visioning and planning in order to help this important part of the city
staff healthy. The draft 2040 plans states the city should:
Complete a subarea plan or district plan for the Maplewood Mall area, to helpdefine the following:
a.Expectations regarding anticipated mixes of land uses on a block by block basis.
b.Expectations regarding urban design principles guiding redevelopment in the area.
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c.Opportunities for connections and synergy with the HealthEastSt. Johns campus
and surrounding supportive health care facilities.
d.Improvements to support pedestrian, bicycling, and transit connectivity, particularly
the METRO Rush Line stations.
e.Further definition of implementation tools and steps to be completed,to support
redevelopment and revitalization.
As referenced above, a regional transit line is being planned that would traverse through this
neighborhood in Maplewood. The proposed Rush Line will have five stations in Maplewood –
including stations near the Maplewood Mall and St. John’s Hospital in this neighborhood. City staff
is working to ensure these two processes are developed in coordination and inform each other.
Background
Anchored by the Maplewood Mall and St. John's Hospital, the North End is an important economic
generator for the City of Maplewood and of one the premier activity centers in the northeastern
portion of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Furthermore, the City of Maplewood is currently
working with Ramsey County and the Metropolitan Council on planning for a new multimillion dollar
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) line - the Rush Line - that will have two stations serving the North End
district and three more stations serving other parts of Maplewood.
Although the North End has been constantly evolving since it was first developed over 40 years
ago, significant changes in the real estate industry and our overall economy are rapidly redefining
where and how we live, work, and play. Activity centers once designed to be accessible only by
automobile are losing their viability unless they can transform into truly connected places defined
not only by multi-modal systems but by new uses and development that reinforce walkability,
livability, and place-making. Therefore, it is critical that theCity of Maplewood work with key
stakeholders and other important constituents to create a consensus vision and framework for the
North End that will ensure its position as a hub of vital activity well into the future.
TheJuly23 council workshop will focus on a discussion regarding the market study conducted for
the North End of Maplewood. At this meeting, staff will also discuss next steps which included
consideration of execution of a contract with Perkins+Will, hiring the firm to develop a small area
plan for the North End. This will occur at a council meeting in August and public engagement would
start right away.
Attachments
1.Draft Market Study
2.Ramsey County Rush Line Presentation
3.Perkins+Will Market Study Presentation
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Prepared for:
Prepared by:
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................... i
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... ii
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1
Study Area Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 2
Socio-Economic Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 8
Housing Market ........................................................................................................................................... 18
Retail Market .............................................................................................................................................. 30
Office Market .............................................................................................................................................. 38
Medical Office ............................................................................................................................................. 44
Planned and Proposed Developments ........................................................................................................ 47
Expert Interviews ........................................................................................................................................ 50
Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................. 52
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Background
This market study analyzed the near- and long-term development potential within an area of
Maplewood, Minnesota referred to as the North End, an area roughly bounded by Interstate 694 on the
north, White Bear Avenue on the east, Beam Avenue on the south, and the Bruce Vento Regional Trail
on the west. The North End is a major employment and activity center for the City of Maplewood. It is
anchored by two major uses -- a regional shopping center (Maplewood Mall) and regional health care
as well as substantial amounts of new multifamily housing (both owner-
and renter-occupied), numerous medical office buildings, other ancillary retail, including both strip
centers and freestanding big-box stores, and a library.
This market study is the first step in a larger planning process that will help determine a vision for the
future of the North End. Profound changes are impacting the North End the retail industry is rapidly
evolving, the healthcare industry continues to grow by leaps and bounds, and the Rush Line BRT will
significantly enhance transit service to the area. Therefore, the purpose of this market study is to
inform the planning process and provide stakeholders with data and analysis of the short- and long-term
market trends that will shape and shift development opportunities in the North End. Important market
factors related to demographic trends, economic trends, real estate supply and condition, as well as the
opinions of real estate experts were evaluated and used to identify key findings and draw conclusions.
The following is a summary of major findings and conclusions contained in this report.
Study AreaAnalysis
The study area contains a little under 400 acres in size and is approximately seven miles from downtown
St. Paul and 13 miles from downtown Minneapolis. Most of the development in the study area is less
than 40 years old and, therefore, has a mostly automobile-oriented development pattern defined by
large blocks, wide streets, and buildings with substantial surface parking.
The study area is well connected to the metropolitan region via Interstate 694, Highway 61, and five
different Metro Transit routes. Local arterials, such as White Bear Avenue and Beam Avenue, provide
connections to nearby neighborhoods and adjacent cities. Moreover, the Bruce Vento Trail provides a
safe off-street option for persons traveling by foot or bicycle to connect to destinations to the south,
including Downtown St. Paul, and other regional trails, such as the Gateway Trail.
Traffic counts along roadways that serve the North End area are strong and reinforce the retail character
of much of the North End. Although these roadways are critical in connecting the North End to the
region and supporting uses, such as retail and healthcare, many of them are barriers to local mobility
because of their size and higher speeds, especially for persons traveling by foot or bicycle.
Nearby destinations that would make the North End attractive to residents and employers include the
rich complement of retail goods and services within the district, access to healthcare services, proximity
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to Century College, a large community college within two miles of the North End area, and proximity to
a concentration of corporate campuses less than six miles to the west along Interstate 694.
Map: North End Study Area
I-694
County Road D
Beam Ave
there can easily draw customers from a wide trade area that encompasses much of northern
Washington County and northeastern Ramsey County. Socio-economic data for the trade area was
analyzed to determine future growth trend and identify demographic patterns that would affect
demand for new development.
Map: North End Trade Area
STUDY AREA
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Socio-Economic Analysis
Socio-economic data pertaining to the potential market demand for new development in the North End
was gathered and analyzed. Based on demographic forecasts prepared by the Metropolitan Council, the
trade area is anticipated to add 32,000 people and 22,000 new households by 2040. These growth
figures will fuel additional demand for new housing, retail, and office space
strategic location, it will be able to capture a good portion of that demand provided redevelopment
opportunities are identified and public realm improvements are invested in.
Regardless of the amount of growth, important demographic trends will influence the type of
development needed to meet the growing demand. In particular, the population is aging, especially in
rade Area. This will enerate increaseemand or ultifamilyousingspecially senior housing,
the Tgd dfm h, e
as well as healthcare services. At the same time, parts of the trade area closest to the North End, such as
Maplewood, are seeing growth rates among younger adults, especially those of child bearing age,
increase at levels well above the metro area region. This indicates a growing demand for starter or
entry-level housing as well as larger housing styles (i.e., 3BR+ units or larger).
Some of the demand for larger housing units generated by more households with children can be met as
existing homes are vacated by empty-nesters and retirees who downsize. However, income trends are
creating a barrier to this dynamic. Since 2000 younger households (those under age 45) in the trade area
have seen their median income lag well behind the overall growth in median income. This means
housing price appreciation, which many households rely on to build wealth, will have its limits.
Housing as a means to build wealth is already beginning to change. Since 2000 the homeownership rate
in the trade area and across the region has dropped precipitously. The reasons for this are both
demographic (more households in their prime renting years under 35 and over 65) and economic (the
recession-driven housing bust of the late 2000s). Nevertheless, homeownership as the primary
investment vehicle for most households is waning, which is creating increased demand for more
multifamily rental housing.
Market Analysis
HOUSING
The study evaluated data pertaining to residential construction trends, the rental apartment market,
and the for-sale housing market. In terms of construction, there have been two important trends during
the last 10-15 years. First, the housing bust resulted in a profound decline in construction of new
housing. Although housing construction has begun to increase in the last several years, it is still well
below historic patterns, which has resulted in a lack supply that is currently not meeting demand.
ift away from building singleltifamily units, which now
Second, there has been a sh-family units to mu
account for nearly two-thirds of the housing being built.
The rental apartment market is extremely tight with very low vacancy (3% in the trade area) and rapidly
rising rents average asking rent in the trade area has gone up more than $100 in the past two years.
Such favorable market conditions for developers means that construction of market rate apartments is
above historic patterns, though overall housing construction remains slow. After focusing in the central
cities for many years, new market apartment construction is beginning to increase in the suburbs.
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Within the North End, Conifer Ridge, a 150-unit development, just opened and will be an important test
of local market conditions.
On the for-sale side of the market, home prices bottomed out in 2011 after the bust. After seven
straight years of year-over-year price increases, the median sales price finally exceeded the previous
high from 2006. Currently, the market is strong with very low inventory (both existing and new
construction), short sales times, and steep price increases. For the North End, rapid price appreciation is
creating demand for townhomes and other owner-occupied multifamily product.
RETAIL MARKET
Maplewood Mall anchors a retail district with nearly 2.5 million square feet of space. It is one of 14 retail
districts with over two million square feet of space, which includes everything from neighborhood
retailers to those with a regional draw. The retail sector is undergoing profound changes as e-Commerce
continues to capture and ever increasing share of retail spending. This change is hitting regional
shopping centers anchored by major department stores particularly hard. Although vacant retail space
across all retail types has been absorbed as the economy has improved in the wake of the recession,
construction of new retail space has slowed considerably and rents have not increased appreciably.
The uncertainty shrouding the retail sector has definitely led to delayed investments, especially in brick-
and-mortar assets. Retail environments that appearing to bucking the trend are those in which the
experience of a shopping visit takes precedence over its convenience. This means integrating other
active uses to help draw potential customers, such as fitness centers, food markets, entertainment
offerings, and office spaces. In some cases, retail centers are transforming their underutilized parking
areas into various types of housing to better utilize the space and help it contribute to an overall sense
of vitality.
OFFICE MARKET
Although the office market in the trade area is not prominent -- most of the main office districts are
located in the west metro -- ubmarket with an important
concentration of medical office buildings. Due to the recent completion of the HealthEast Office Building
-term demand for medical office space is limited. However,
the healthcare sector is forecasted to be the primary driver of job growth over the next 10 years in the
metro area. Therefore, it is likely that demand for medical office space in the North End will continue to
grow. Moreover, given the recent merger of HealthEast and Fairview health systems, it is possible that
destination in the northeast metro, thus adding to any organic growth driven by demographics and an
ever evolving healthcare industry.
Conclusions
Overall, the short and long-term market demand for new development in the North End has some
positive signs but that the reality of a rapidly changing marketplace will require property owners and
other stakeholders to stay ahead of fast moving trends and be in a position to seize opportunities
quickly. If not, missed opportunities will compound on one another and potentially prevent any changes
that would make a difference. This should come as no surprise to those who pay close attention to the
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retail industry. Nevertheless, a broad statement proclaiming the potential of an area like the north End
of Maplewood masks the fact that opportunity is not evenly dispersed throughout the study area.
Differences in market demand can be based on a variety of factors, such as location, type of land use,
market timing, competition, to name but a few.
Based on the data and analysis conducted as part of the market study, the following are key findings and
conclusions regarding important market trends affecting the North End.
The North End study area is the key node of activity in the northeast metro. With over two million
square feet of retail space, over 1,000 units of housing, and almost 5,000 jobs, the study area is a vital
economic generator. Moreover, recent and planned transportation investments, including the Bruce Vento
Trail, a Metro Transit Center, and the Rush Line BRT, will only serve to increase connectivity to and from the
study area, which will position it to continue to be a key node of activity well into the future.
trade area will fuel
demand for a variety of real estate uses, including new multifamily housing, new retail concepts
that will likely emerge in an increasingly digital world, and more traditional and medical office
space that will be needed to support a growing and aging population. Based primarily on growth
forecasts for the trade area, the North End study area could potentially support up to 2,200 new units of
housing, over 120,000 square feet of new office space, and significant rehabilitation and reconfiguration of its
existing retail structures.
The trade area population is older than the metro area. As the number of older adults continues to
grow this will affect the need for more housing with services, access to medical care, access to healthy
activities, and reduced levels of spending on certain retail categories, such as entertainment, apparel, and fast
casual dining.
Although older adults are increasing in the trade area, persons that are prime child bearing age
(25 to 34) grew at a faster rate in Maplewood and the trade area compared to the metro area
from 2010 to 2016. This will boost the number of children in the coming years and increase demand for
larger housing styles (3BR+) and spending in most retail categories.
Homeownership has been on the decline since 2000 in the trade area as well as across the region.
This is due to a variety of reasons, including changes in the mortgage industry brought on by the 2008-09
recession, recent demographic shifts favoring age groups with the propensity to rent, rising home prices
making homeownership unobtainable for many households, and greater interest in living in neighborhoods
with a high level of walkability, which requires denser forms of housing that are often rented and not owned.
Incomes in the trade area are, on average, slightly below those of the metro area. More
importantly, since 2000, the rate of increase in the trade area has lagged behind the metro area rate of
increase. This will be seen as a barrier to investment among many private developers, especially those that are
risk-averse. Of particular interest, is the income trends among younger households (those under age 45) and
older households (those age 65 and older). Incomes among younger households are not keeping with other
age groups. Meanwhile, older households are experiencing income increases well ahead of all other age
groups. This dynamic has the potential to create a significant cultural gap between younger and older
households, which could have political ramifications in which government investment skews more heavily
toward the benefit of older households and away from younger households.
Its growth has helped make healthcare services
the largest industry sector in the trade ar
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that have grown up around it to grow even more in the coming years is high. According to data from the
Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, occupations in healthcare services
account for the top three fastest growing occupations in the Twin Cities metro area through 2024.
Housing will drive demand for new development in the study area in both the short-term and
long-term. The housing market is currently exceptionally strong and indicators suggest it will stay strong for
at least a couple more years, barring an economic downturn. Rental housing in suburban markets will be
especially strong because new apartment development has been lacking for many years and is now starting to
pick up steam. However, like all real estate sectors, housing will eventually go through a down cycle.
Nevertheless, the characteristics of the study area are such that housing will continue to be the main driver of
change over time. This has to do mostly with the demand for housing at important activity nodes, but it also
has to do with the decreasing need for space in the retail and office sectors.
Housing as a main driver of change can be seen in other suburban activity nodes across the metro
area. For example, in the Southdale area of Edina over 700 market rate apartments have been developed
since 2014. Another 860 units are under construction or well through the planning process. In the Ridgedale
area of Minnetonka, 460 housing units have been recently constructed or are under development.
The primary barriers to housing development in the study area will be availability of sites and the
Conifer Ridge, the
apartment property that just opened in the study area, was built on one of the last remaining undeveloped
sites in the study area. Therefore, any future housing development will likely require the redevelopment or
repurposing of an existing property, which will be dependent on property owners to sell their property to a
developer or take on the development themselves. As for testing the market support for new housing,
according to CoStar, Conifer Ridge is nearing stabilized occupancy after being open less than a year. This rate
of absorption will be noticed by the development community, and, unless management was offering
significant concessions in order to fill units quickly, the asking rents (at more than $1.70 per square foot) will
also attract interest.
The greatest housing need is for workforce and low-income housing. Because of rapidly rising housing
costs, this is a growing need across the metro area and not just in the trade area. The challenge, of course, is
that the target market cannot afford rents that would make a project financially feasible, unless there some
type of public assistance that can help close the financial gap. Assistance can come a variety of forms. For
example, financial assistance can come in the form of tax-increment financing (TIF), tax abatement, grants, or
help with site acquisition and/or clean-up costs. Regulatory assistance can come in the form of streamlining
the approval process or allowing density bonuses or other incentives for including below market units.
Housing for seniors will be needed as well given the aging of the population in the trade area.
There are several levels of senior housing currently in the study area. The newest is Maple Hill Senior Living,
which is an assisted living and memory care facility that was previously a hotel. The greatest demand for
senior housing in the near-term, however, will come not from persons with care needs but from Baby
Boomers, who are now entering their mid-70s. This group is looking for housing that is lower maintenance but
does not necessarily have supportive care associated with it. In some cases, an age-restriction would appeal to
this group, but many times traditional rental properties with access to trails and modern features and
amenities is the most desirable options. This target market will also desire owner-occupied, low maintenance
housing. This can be townhomes or condominiums/cooperatives. Regardless of whether the housing is owned
up will be looking for single
or rented, this gro-level living.
The future of Maplewood Mall will be extremely important to the remainder of the study area
and its ability to attract investment and support redevelopment. The mall has been an icon for the
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northeast metro for over 40 years. It defines the area and gives it a sense of identity. For good reason, it
attracts thousands of people per day for shopping, dining, recreation, and employment. However, the
enclosed shopping mall is at a crossroads. The business model behind the design is changing. Department
stores no longer can serve as the anchors that draw visitors. Therefore, new anchors, new uses, and
potentially new designs will be necessary for survival. The development community is paying close attention
to the choices mall owners make. If they feel the adaptations are inadequate this will affect their decisions to
invest in the study area.
Any repositioning of Maplewood Mall has a very thin margin for error. Sears will be closing in July
erms of
trade areas of other metro area regional shopping districts. This puts Maplewood Mall at a greater risk than
malls located in more affluent t
marketable approach to any repositioning would be to assume uncertainty as a given and plan any physical
change to be as flexible and adaptable as possible.
Office uses will not drive development in the study area. Instead, the demand for office space will be
entirely driven by long-term growth in the household base. The northeast metro area is not a major office
district and thus lacks even a single Class A office property. As a result, the office space that does exist in the
trade area mostly satisfies local demand from small professional service firms, such as real estate agents,
financial planners, attorneys, accountants, etc.
When office market conditions in the trade area are supportive of new development, the study
area should be considered a priority location. It has many of the amenities employers are looking for to
help with worker attraction and retention (i.e., proximity to shops, restaurants, trails, and transit). Currently,
the office vacancy rate in the trade area is tight (less than 4.5% compared the metro area rate of 8.0%) and
rents have been on an upward trend in the last three years. This suggests that there may be pent-up demand
in the market for a small office building (under 30,000 square feet).
Medical office space is an important niche in the study area and should be evaluated for how the
clustering of activities and specialties could be leveraged into new opportunities for growth
and/or development. There are 14 medical office buildings in the study area with a combined total of over
500,000 square feet. This concentration of space means that there is an unusually strong cluster that anchors
a trade area in which 22 percent of all office space is in medical office buildings. To illustrate how strong a
cluster this is, across the metro area that proportion is only six percent.
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INTRODUCTION
Background and Purpose
Maplewood, Minnesota is interested in creating a vision plan for an area located in the north central
portion of the city, roughly bounded by Interstate 694 on the north, White Bear Avenue on the east,
Beam Avenue on the south, and the Bruce Vento Regional Trail on the west. This area is a major
employment and activity center for the City of Maplewood. It is anchored by two major uses -- a
as
well as substantial amounts of new multifamily housing (both owner- and renter-occupied), numerous
medical office buildings, other ancillary retail, including both strip centers and freestanding big-box
stores, and a library.
Because this part of Maplewood is such an important economic generator, it will be critical that the
vision plan is not overly aspirational and is rooted in market realities. Otherwise, it risks sitting on a shelf
unable to be implemented. Therefore, this market study is intended to inform the planning process and
provide stakeholders with data and analysis of the short- and long-term market trends that will shape
and shift opportunities in the study area. Important market factors related to demographic trends,
economic trends, real estate supply and condition, as well as the opinions of real estate experts were
evaluated and used to identify key findings and draw conclusions.
Data Resources
This study represents a compilation of data gathered from various sources, including the properties
surveyed, local records, interviews with local officials and real estate professionals, as well as secondary
demographic material. Although Perkins+Will judges these sources to be reliable, it is impossible to
authenticate all data. The analyst does not guarantee the data and assumes no liability for any errors in
fact, analysis, or judgment. The secondary data used in this study are the most recent available at the
time of the report preparation.
The objective of this report is to gather, analyze, and present as many market components as reasonably
possible within the time and budget constraints agreed upon. The conclusions contained in this report
are based on the best judgments of the analysts; Perkins+WIll makes no guarantees or assurances that
the projections or c
effort in data aggregation and to express opinions based on our evaluation.
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STUDY AREA ANALYSIS
The study area is located in the City of Maplewood, a suburb north and east of St. Paul. It contains a
little under 400 acres, and is bounded by White Bear Avenue to the east, Beam Avenue to the south, the
Bruce Vento Trail to the west, and I-694 to the north. It is approximately seven miles from downtown St.
Paul and 13 miles from downtown Minneapolis.
Existing Land Uses and Character
The study area is a major employment and activity center for the City of Maplewood. It is anchored by
two major uses -- a regional shopping center (Maplewood Mall) and regional health care facility (St.
as well as substantial amounts of new multifamily housing (both owner- and renter-
occupied), numerous medical office buildings, satellite strip malls, freestanding big-box stores, and a
library.
Retail uses are concentrated in the eastern half of the study area. Of particular note is Maplewood Mall.
Built in the mid-1970s, the mall contains just over 800,000 square feet of retail space and has been the
dominant use in the study area for nearly 50 years
and JC Penney. At the time of this study, Sears was the fourth department store anchor of the mall.
However, it has been reported that Sears intends to close this location by July 2018.
In addition to Maplewood Mall, the study area also contains another 800,000 square feet of retail space,
nearly half of which is in Birch Run Station, an in-line strip mall immediately west of Maplewood Mall.
Further establishing the retail character of the study area is roughly 750,000 square feet of retail space
located within a ¼ mile of the study area but just outside its borders.
Healthcare related uses are concentrated in the southwest portion of the study area. This area is
340,000 square feet of usable space. Supporting the hospital are seven medical office buildings with a
combined total of nearly 400,000 square feet. Within a ¼ mile of the study area are another seven
medical office buildings with over 130,000 square feet of office space.
In the northwest portion of the study area, multifamily housing is the dominant use. Developed much
later than the retail and office areas, this area includes more multimodal transportation options, such as
sidewalks and trails, and overall has a more compact development pattern. There are nearly 1,000 units
of housing in the area with a wide variety a product types, including senior housing (with differing levels
of care), owner-occupied townhomes, affordable rental townhomes, and market rate rental apartments.
Other uses in the study area are entertainment (Myth Live event center) and a branch of the Ramsey
County Library. With the exception of one or two small sites, the study area is fully developed. However,
given the strong commercial and institutional character of the study area, which attracts users from a
large trade area, a significant portion of study area land is for parking. These large parking fields, many
of which are underutilized, represent opportunities for new development.
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Map 1: Study Area Land or Property Uses
STUDY AREA
Cub
Foods
Club
I-694
COUNTY RD D
Maplewood Mall
Birch Run Station
SOUTHLAWN DR
WHITE BEAR AVE
HAZELWOOD ST
Costco
Metro
Hospital
Transit
Center
BEAM AVE
1/2 Mile
Accessibility
The study area is well connected to the remainder of the region via access to the regional highway
network. I-694 forms the norther border of the study area in which there is a full interchange at White
Bear Avenue, the eastern border of the study area. I-694 provides direct access to downtown St. Paul via
I-35E and to downtown Minneapolis via I-35W. Furthermore, I-
around the Minneapolis-St. Paul. Therefore, it provides easy access to communities east and south of St.
Paul as well as direct access to communities north and west of Minneapolis.
Highway 61 and White Bear Avenue are important north-south arterial roads that connect the study
nal destinations as well. In addition to providing direct connections to
area to important regioVadnais
Heights and White Bear Lake to the north and St. Paul to the south, both roadways also connect to
Highway 36 about a one mile south of the study area. Highway 36 is an important east-west alternative
to I-694.
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It should be noted that the new St. Croix River Bridge just south of Stillwater, which is linked to Highway
36, will incentivize new residential development in western Wisconsin. Because the study area is located
along the northeastern portion of the Twin Cities beltway, it is in a position to capture retail dollars from
western Wisconsin households and be an attractive location for employers who want to draw from a
growing workforce in Wisconsin. However, the market impact of this dynamic will be many years in the
n.
The study area is served by five different Metro Transit bus routes. There are two routes that provide
express service to downtown St. Paul (#270) and downtown Minneapolis (#265). The St. Paul express
service operates Monday thru Friday with inbound busses in the morning and four outbound busses in
the evening. The Minneapolis service consists of 18 inbound busses in the morning and 18 outbound
busses in the evening. There are also three local bus routes that connect the study area to Rosedale
(#223), the greater east side of St. Paul (#80), and to the suburbs east of St. Paul (#219). Metro Transit
operates a transit center with park-and-ride facilities in a structure at the northeast corner of Beam
Avenue and Southlawn Drive.
The study area is also connected to the regional trail system via the Bruce Vento Trail, which is the
western border of the study area. The Bruce Vento Trail terminates near downtown St. Paul and also
provides a connection to the Gateway Trail, which links to Stillwater on the east as well as downtown St.
Paul.
Local vehicular access to the study area is primarily via White Bear Avenue, Beam Avenue, County Road
D, and Hazelwood Street. Internal access is primarily via Kennard Street, Southlawn Drive, and Legacy
Parkway. Due to the predominance of large commercial and institutional structures, much of the
eastern and southern portions of the study area sidewalks
often provide pedestrian circulation throughout most of these large blocks, internal circulation is
dominated by vehicular movement.
Connections to neighborhoods surrounding the study area are limited especially to the north and west
where I-694 and Highway 61 are major barriers with few crossings. Connections to the south and east
are better, but White Bear Avenue and Beam Avenue are divided four-lane roadways, which also makes
crossings challenging, especially for those traveling on foot or by bicycle.
Visibility
The average annual daily traffic (AADT) on roadways serving the study area are strong: I-694 has 80,000
vehicles per day; White Bear Avenue has roughly 21,000 vehicles per day; Beam Avenue has between
15,000 and 20,000 vehicles per day; and County Road D has between 4,500 and 9,500 vehicles per day.
The high traffic count
major traffic generators. As a result, other businesses that benefit from traffic visibility have gravitated
to the study area as well.
Although hospitals with emergency rooms have critical accessibility and visibility requirements, most of
their functioning is not as sensitive to visibility as compared to retail uses, for example. Streets and
roadways that are internal to the study area do not have as high of traffic volumes as those along the
periphery. Therefore, if new retail uses were to be developed at locations that are not currently visible
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from one or more of the peripheral roadways, there would need to be a significant change in the
transportation pattern of the study area to support this type of development.
Although I-694 carries a significant amount of traffic, motorists are unable to see many of the uses in the
study area, except for those with immediate frontage along the highway. In particular, Maplewood Mall,
despite highway signage directing motorists to the nearest exit, is not visible from I-694. This is in
contrast to several other large regional shopping centers in the Twin Cities area that are directly visible
from major highways, such as Rosedale (Highway 36), Ridgedale (I-394), Burnsville Center (I-35W), Arbor
Lakes (I-94), and Woodbury Lakes (I-94).
Map 2: MnDOT -- Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) Volumes
STUDY AREA
Neighborhood Amenitiesand Other Nearby Destinations
With over two million square feet of retail space within the study, there is a wide variety of retail goods
and services that would appeal to many residents and workers. Furthermore, this variety includes all
regional destinations as well as neighborhood-scale retail stores.
In the northwest portion of the study area, there are several trails that link a branch of the Ramsey
County Library to Legacy Park, several residential neighborhoods, and the Bruce Vento Trail. Legacy Park
is approximately 10 acres in size and consists wetlands, open water, and a trail system. However, there
are no other types of park facilities that are part of this park. Some of the residential developments have
playgrounds, but these are not public facilities.
Approximately two miles ea-year
community and technical colleges. Roughly six miles to the west along I-694 is a major employment
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poration, and Boston
Scientific.
Trade Area Definition
Because the study area contains a variety of uses that draw customers and users from well outside the
study area, it is important to define a trade area or catchment area from which to study area
demographic and market trends. In other words, a trade area is the geographic extent from which a
given store, commercial district, healthcare facility, or new residential development will attract most of
its customers.
The trade area for the study area roughly extends 3.5 miles to the south including portions of
northeastern St. Paul. It extends 3 miles to the west where Maplewood borders Roseville along Rice
Street. It extends 10 miles to the north, including the communities of Hugo and May Township. It
extends roughly 11 miles to the east, including the communities of Stillwater and Oak Park Heights.
Important characteristics and/or influences affecting the size and shape of the trade area include the
location of competitive regional shopping centers or districts, the location of competitive hospitals or
medical districts, the presence of major highways, historic development patterns, and physical and
psychological barriers, such as lakes, rivers, railroads, or political boundaries. Map 3 depicts the extent
of the trade area.
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Map 3: Maplewood North End Trade Area
STUDY AREA
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
This section examines the demographic and economic trends influencing the study area by examining
likely travel to the study area for goods, services, and employment), and the Twin Cities Metro Area.
Changing demographic and economic trends can signal ways in which the market will likely respond to
future demand for housing, retail, and office space.
Population and Households
Table 1 and Figure 2 present data on recent and forecasted population and household growth trends for
Maplewood and the trade area as well as the seven-county Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. When
estimating the need for future development, it is essential to take into consideration not only recent
growth trends but also forecast data in order to gauge the overall demographic demand for new
housing, retail space, office space, and other commercial uses. The following are key findings from the
presented data:
Through strategic in-fill and redevelopment, Maplewood grew by roughly 2,800 people (7.8%) and 1,100
households (8.2%) between 2000 and 2010. The rate of growth during this time was similar to the metro area
growth
population and household growth is currently increasing. Between 2010 and 2020, the city is expected to add
roughly 4,100 people and 2,100 households. However, after 2020, the rate of growth is anticipated to remain
strong through 2040, but not at the level currently being experienced.
Growth trends in the trade area are anticipated to be much more consistent through 2040, yet slightly below
the rate of growth for Maplewood and the metro area. Between 2010 and 2040, the Metropolitan Council
expects the Trade Area to grow by roughly 43,000 people and 25,000 households. This amount of growth,
despite cycles in the real estate industry, will drive a certain amount of demand for new development,
northeast suburbs.
Table 1: Population and Household Growth Trends 2000-2040
Numeric ChangePercent Change
Geography20002010202020302040'00-'10'10-'20'20-'30'30-'40'00-'10'10-'20'20-'30'30-'40
tƚƦǒƌğƷźƚƓ
Maplewood35,25838,01842,20045,60048,6002,7604,1823,4003,0007.8%11.0%8.1%6.6%
Trade Area198,761210,710223,982238,613253,30911,94913,27214,63114,6966.0%6.3%6.5%6.2%
1
Metro Area2,642,0622,849,5673,160,0003,459,0003,738,000207,505310,433299,000279,0007.9%10.9%9.5%8.1%
IƚǒƭĻŷƚƌķƭ
Maplewood13,75814,88217,00018,90020,3001,1242,1181,9001,4008.2%14.2%11.2%7.4%
Trade Area73,75980,04089,79497,933105,1616,2819,7548,1397,2288.5%12.2%9.1%7.4%
1
Metro Area1,021,4561,117,7491,264,0001,402,0001,537,00096,293146,251138,000135,0009.4%13.1%10.9%9.6%
1
7-County metro area, which includes the counties of Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington
Sources: US Census; Metropolitan Council; Perkins+Will
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Figure 1: Population Growth Rate 2000-2040
Age Distribution
The age profile of the population has important ramifications on the demand for new real estate
development. For example, the types of housing needed or the types of retail goods and services
demanded can be significantly aff and Figures 2 and 3 present current
and historic data on the age profile of Maplewood, the trade area, and the seven-county Twin Cities
Metropolitan Area. Below are key findings from the data:
Maplewood and the trade area have an older population base compared to the metro area. Currently, median
age in Maplewood is 39.1 and it is 38.3 in the trade area, whereas in the metro area it is 36.6. However, this
has not always been the case. Since 2000, the trade area has experienced a sharp increase in its median age
compared to both Maplewood and the metro area. Meanwhile, the median age of Maplewood has actually
decreased since 2010 despite an overall trend toward an ever increasing median age.
When comparing the current age profile of Maplewood and the trade area against the metro area, all of the
older age groups (those age 55 and over) tend to make up a higher percentage of the population. Conversely,
younger age groups (those under age 55) in both Maplewood and the trade area tend to make up a lower
percentage of the population when compared to the metro area. The only exception is the 5-17 age group in
the trade area, which has a higher proportion of the population when compared to the metro area.
overall aging population to an increasingly youthful profile can be seen
in the rate of change for the population age 25-34. This age group grew by over 29% between 2000 and 2016,
which is a significantly higher rate than the 17% and 10% growth rates experienced in the trade area and
metro area, respectively.
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Table 2: Age Distribution of the Population 2000, 2010, and 2016
Change 2000-2016Distribution
Age Group200020102016No.Pct.200020102016
MAPLEWOOD
Under 52,2782,4372,3881104.8%6.5%6.4%6.0%
5 to 176,3666,2886,446801.3%18.2%16.5%16.2%
18 to 242,6923,4143,38669425.8%7.7%9.0%8.5%
25 to 344,5545,0495,8831,32929.2%13.0%13.3%14.8%
35 to 445,9194,5034,276-1,643-27.8%16.9%11.8%10.8%
45 to 544,8285,9155,59176315.8%13.8%15.6%14.1%
55 to 643,0534,6175,4142,36177.3%8.7%12.1%13.6%
65 to 742,5832,6273,03645317.5%7.4%6.9%7.7%
75 to 841,9352,0712,13620110.4%5.5%5.4%5.4%
85+7391,0971,12238351.8%2.1%2.9%2.8%
Total34,94738,01839,6784,73113.5%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Median Age37.839.339.11.3--------
TRADE AREA
Under 513,89814,38414,1252271.6%7.0%6.8%6.4%
5 to 1741,88838,71939,548-2,340-5.6%21.1%18.4%17.9%
18 to 2416,51518,40618,1541,6399.9%8.3%8.7%8.2%
25 to 3425,74827,53730,1744,42617.2%13.0%13.1%13.7%
35 to 4434,53025,85525,677-8,853-25.6%17.4%12.3%11.6%
45 to 5428,32833,32930,9832,6559.4%14.3%15.8%14.0%
55 to 6416,13826,16530,76714,62990.6%8.1%12.4%13.9%
65 to 7411,46013,48517,4465,98652.2%5.8%6.4%7.9%
75 to 847,8128,7499,0111,19915.3%3.9%4.2%4.1%
85+2,4444,0814,8722,42899.3%1.2%1.9%2.2%
Total198,761210,710220,75721,99611.1%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Median Age35.437.438.32.9--------
7-COUNTY METRO AREA
Under 5188,236194,329197,6959,4595.0%7.1%6.8%6.6%
5 to 17509,298506,631512,5163,2180.6%19.3%17.8%17.2%
18 to 24244,226263,462263,82919,6038.0%9.2%9.2%8.9%
25 to 34411,155420,311451,22640,0719.7%15.6%14.7%15.1%
35 to 44469,324391,324389,735-79,589-17.0%17.8%13.7%13.1%
45 to 54363,592440,753424,03960,44716.6%13.8%15.5%14.2%
55 to 64200,980326,007374,166173,18686.2%7.6%11.4%12.6%
65 to 74130,615163,425209,58978,97460.5%4.9%5.7%7.0%
75 to 8490,29297,442104,30414,01215.5%3.4%3.4%3.5%
85+34,33845,88351,72317,38550.6%1.3%1.6%1.7%
Total2,642,0562,849,5672,978,822336,76612.7%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Median Age34.236.036.62.4--------
Sources: US Census; Metropolitan Council; Perkins+Will
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Figure 2: Age Distribution 2016
Figure 3: Median Age 2000, 2010, and 2016
Household Type
Changing family and household structures can also have a profound effect on housing and other
community needs. For example, decreasing household size has a direct impact on the amount of
housing a household needs. Also, the presence of children not only impacts local schools and parks but
also the types of retailers that can be supported and the nature of housing demanded. Table 3 and
Figures 4 and 5 present data on household type for Maplewood, the trade area, and the metro area. The
following are key findings from the data:
Compared to the metro area, both Maplewood and the trade area have a higher percentage of married
couple households without children, single-parent households, and other family households. Conversely, they
both have a lower percentage of married couple households with children, single-person households, and
roommate households.
Since 2000, Maplewood has experienced a significant increase in the number of other family and roommate
households and a significant decline in married couple households with children. Meanwhile the change in
household types in the trade area has been very consistent to the metro-wide experience. The only difference
would be a significant decline in the number of married couple households with children, which is similar to
the Maplewood.
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As illustrated in Figure 5, the percentage of households with children, which would include married couple
households and single-parent households, declined sharply from 2000 to 2010 in Maplewood, the trade area,
and the metro area. Since 2010, however, both the trade and the metro area have seen an increase in the
percentage of households with children, while this household type remained the same in Maplewood.
Table 3: Household Type 2000, 2010, and 2016
Change '00-'16Distribution
Household Type200020102016NumberPercent200020102016
MAPLEWOOD
Married, w/children3,2312,7552,798-433-13.4%23.5%18.5%18.5%
Married, no children4,0374,3544,44941210.2%29.3%29.3%29.4%
Single-parent family1,1201,4021,44832829.3%8.1%9.4%9.6%
Other family*8031,1091,03623329.0%5.8%7.5%6.8%
Single3,7094,3384,32261316.5%27.0%29.1%28.5%
Roommate8589241,10024228.2%6.2%6.2%7.3%
Total Households13,75814,88215,1531,39510.1%100%100%100%
TRADE AREA
Married, w/children19,51916,88317,480-2,039-10.4%26.5%21.1%21.0%
Married, no children20,63923,82024,5643,92519.0%28.0%29.8%29.5%
Single-parent family6,9347,8559,1532,21932.0%9.4%9.8%11.0%
Other family*4,1745,3924,3041303.1%5.7%6.7%5.2%
Single18,14921,20822,8034,65425.6%24.6%26.5%27.4%
Roommate4,3444,8824,89455012.7%5.9%6.1%5.9%
Total Households73,75980,04083,1989,43912.8%100%100%100%
7-COUNTY METRO AREA
Married, w/children256,655244,687257,2545990.2%25.1%21.9%22.2%
Married, no children263,626298,723311,81348,18718.3%25.8%26.7%26.9%
Single-parent family84,24695,127108,99224,74629.4%8.2%8.5%9.4%
Other family*53,63268,95956,2002,5684.8%5.3%6.2%4.9%
Single281,086319,030333,28452,19818.6%27.5%28.5%28.8%
Roommate82,20991,22389,9987,7899.5%8.0%8.2%7.8%
Total Households1,021,4541,117,7491,157,541136,08713.3%100%100%100%
* Other Family households consist of households with adult siblings, parents with adult children, or householders with
parents
Source: US Census
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Figure 4: Household Type 2016
Figure 5: Households with Children 2000, 2010, and 2016
Household Tenure
Housing tenure is important to track because it provides insight into the potential of a community to
respond to a changing age profile or shocks to the economy, such as a recession. For example, many
older households often transition out of homeownership into rental housing as they require more
assistance with activities of daily living. Table 4 and Figures 6 and 7 provide detailed information of
housing tenure in Maplewood, the trade area, and the metro area. Below are key findings from the
data:
Compared to the broader region, Maplewood and the trade area have a higher rate of homeownership.
Roughly 72 percent of Maplewood households and 73 percent of trade area households own their housing. By
comparison, across the metro area 68 percent of households own their housing.
Homeownership is lowest among younger households, which typically do not have enough savings to afford a
down payment nor enough income to qualify for a mortgage. However, homeownership rapidly increases as
households reach their peak earning years. Once households begin to retire, though, homeownership starts to
decline.
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Since the housing bust and recession of the late 2000s, homeownership has declined throughout the metro
area and in Maplewood and the trade area. Younger age groups have accounted for most of this decline. In
particular, households age 35 to 44 have retreated from homeownership in a big way. In 2000, 82 percent of
households in this age group in Maplewood owned their housing. In 2016, the rate had declined to 66
percent. Similar declines were experienced in the trade area (-11%) and the metro area (-10%).
Table 4: Household Tenure by Age 2000, 2010, and 2016
200020102016Numeric Change '00-'16Percent Change '00-'16
Age GroupTotalRentOwnTotalRentOwnTotalRentOwnTotalRentOwnTotalRentOwn
MAPLEWOOD
Under 25558450108529407122458328130-100-12222-18%-27%20%
25-342,1588051,3532,2099391,2702,2751,0091,266117204-875%25%-6%
35-443,2405812,6592,3656631,7022,2917681,523-949187-1,136-29%32%-43%
45-542,7773702,4073,3005882,7123,0725522,52029518211311%49%5%
55-641,8281991,6292,7564332,3232,9393812,5581,11118292961%91%57%
65-741,5902661,3241,6202531,3671,9684061,56237814023824%53%18%
75-841,2434567871,3803661,0141,33640892893-481417%-11%18%
85+364212152723362361814429385450217233124%102%153%
All HHs13,7583,33910,41914,8824,01110,87115,1534,28110,8721,39594245310%28%4%
TRADE AREA
Under 253,1222,4137092,8232,2216022,2671,836431-855-577-278-27%-24%-39%
25-3411,9544,5007,45412,0455,1356,91013,0066,3716,6351,0521,871-8199%42%-11%
35-4418,8313,63715,19413,6583,64910,00913,5884,1429,446-5,243505-5,748-28%14%-38%
45-5416,2752,15714,11818,7853,47815,30716,9753,15513,820700998-2984%46%-2%
55-649,5711,1348,43715,5532,25413,29917,1912,67514,5167,6201,5416,07980%136%72%
65-747,2121,1656,0478,4801,2657,21510,9731,4599,5143,7612943,46752%25%57%
75-845,3101,5633,7475,8871,5284,3595,9251,6324,2936156954612%4%15%
85+1,4847037812,8091,3351,4743,2731,4271,8461,7897241,065121%103%136%
All HHs73,75917,27256,48780,04020,86559,17583,19822,69760,5019,4395,4254,01413%31%7%
7-COUNTY METRO AREA
Under 25 56,48946,6999,79049,73641,7897,94742,61237,5185,094-13,877-9,181-4,696-25%-20%-48%
25-34 205,41391,342114,071201,95299,716102,236211,268113,99697,2725,85522,654-16,799 3%25%-15%
35-44 262,16758,438203,729213,98159,303154,678210,23268,381141,851-51,9359,943-61,878-20%17%-30%
45-54 213,16736,077177,090253,78351,379202,404240,69852,796187,90227,53116,71910,812 13%46%6%
55-64 120,78818,205102,583196,95034,355162,595220,91143,185177,726100,12324,98075,143 83%137%73%
65-74 82,52114,49168,030103,34517,99885,347128,81922,791106,02846,2988,30037,998 56%57%56%
75-84 60,68517,10943,57666,26816,18550,08367,93116,23551,6967,246-8748,120 12%-5%19%
85+20,22410,12710,09731,73414,54917,18535,07015,39619,67414,8465,2699,577 73%52%95%
All HHs 1,021,454292,488728,9661,117,749335,274782,4751,157,541370,298787,243136,08777,81058,277 13%27%8%
Source: US Census
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Figure 6: Tenure by Age of Householder Trade Area 2016
Figure 7: Homeownership Rate 2000, 2010, and 2016
Household Income
Household income is important to track, because it is strongly correlated with age and directly affects
the spending power of area residents and their ability to support retail and afford new forms of housing.
Table 5 and Figures 8 through 12 present data on the median household incomes of Maplewood, the
trade area, and metro area. The following are key findings from the data:
The 2016 median household income for Maplewood was just over $63,000 and for the trade area it was just
under $68,000. These medians are below the metro area median income of $71,100.
Household income peaks between the ages of 45 and 64. This is not surprising, since higher wages are
correlated with years of working experience.
The percentage change in median household income in Maplewood was below the metro area rate of change
from 2000 to 2010
metro area rate of change. For the trade area, the rate of change in the median income has consistently been
just below that of the metro area since 2000.
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Figures 9 through 12 help illustrate how the median income for younger households has not kept up with
older households. For instance, in 2000 trade area households under age 25 had a median income that was
roughly equivalent to $56 for every $100 earned among all households in the metro area. The ratio dropped
to $43 by 2016. Conversely, households 65 and older in the trade area saw their equivalent median income
increase from $55 in 2000 to $64 in 2016.
Table 5: Median Household Income by Age 2000, 2010, and 2016
Figure 8: Median Household Income by Age of Householder 2016
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Figure 9: Change in Median Household Income for Households Under Figure 10: Change in Median Household Income for Households Age 25
Age 25 in Constant Dollars to 44 in Constant Dollars
$109
$108$108
$107
$105
$102
$100$100$100
$100
$100$100$100
$98
$91
$56
$56
$54
$51
$50
$50
$50
$46
$43
Figure 11: Change in Median Household Income for Households Age Figure 12: Change in Median Household Income for Households Age 65
45 to 64 in Constant Dollars and Older in Constant Dollars
$124
$123
$122
$121
$119
$119
$119
$118
$113
$100$100$100
$100$100$100
$64
$64
$62
$60$60
$59
$57
$55
$53
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HOUSINGMARKET
This chapter analyzes the current and foreseeable condition of the housing market in and near the Study
Area. It considers various housing types, recent development trends, and the ability of the current
supply to meet market demand.
Residential Development Trends
Figures 13 and 14 present data from the Metropolitan Council on the number of residential building
permits issued in Maplewood and metro area between 1970 and 2016. The 45+ year dataset provides
insight into the macro cycles of overall residential development and by type of structure. Typically,
growing communities with large tracts of vacant land will experience large scale single-family
development first and then, as land becomes scarcer, they will experience multifamily development.
Once a community is mostly built out, then residential development becomes almost entirely
multifamily due to the cost of redeveloping properties. The following are key findings from the data:
Since 1970, the annual average of residential units permitted for construction in Maplewood has been 202.
early 1970s, the late 1980s/early 1990s when single-
family homes dominated, and the early 2000s when multifamily housing became dominant.
Except for a handful of years in the mid 1970s and late 1990s, residential development in Maplewood has
included a healthy mix of single-family homes and multifamily homes. Since the early 2000s, except for the
recession years when almost no home construction was occurring, multifamily housing has been the most
common structure type.
Since the 1970s Maplewood has generally followed metro-wide market cycles with respect to housing
to
mostly multifamily construction and its lack of a market rebound over the last four to five years. Both of these
conditions are likely tied to the decreasing supply of readily developable sites.
Since about 2002, the metro area trend has consistently had a higher proportion of multifamily construction
versus single-family construction. This is counter to long-term terms, which have clearly ebbed and flowed
from one structure to the other. This is notable in that, unlike Maplewood, metro-wide there is typically a
ready supply of undeveloped land to accommodate single-family construction. The persistence of this pattern
may represent a cultural shift as much as an economic shift away from single-family housing styles.
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Figure 13: Maplewood Residential Development 1970-2016 by Structure Type
Figure 14: 7-County Metro Area Residential Development 1970-2016 by Structure Type
RentalHousing
APARTMENT VACANCY AND RENT TRENDS
The apartment market has been strong over the last several years; Maplewood, the communities
surrounding Maplewood, and have all had an apartment vacancy rate at or below five percent since
2012.
When apartment vacancies average five percent, the market is
means there is enough supply for most renters to find adequate housing, while at the same time enough
renters for landlords to be profitable and in a position to reinvest into their properties in order for them
to remain in good condition and be marketable. Vacancies below five percent indicate a tight market in
which rents are likely to increase at rates well above other household costs. Typically, such low
vacancies are an indicator that enough excess demand exists in the market to support new construction,
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provided prevailing target market incomes can afford rents needed to cover the cost of new
construction.
Figures 15 and 16 clearly illustrate the relationship between vacancy and rents. In late 2011 and early
2012, when the vacancy rate in the metro area and Maplewood dropped below five percent, average
monthly rents began to increase. Since 2010, the average asking rent in the metro area has increased
from $889 to $1,208, a 36 percent increase. The sharpest rent increases, however, occurred since 2015
and 2016 where the annual change was over five percent. Although annual rent increases have slowed
slightly since 2016, they still have been averaging around four percent per year. Pent-up demand
explains much of the increase, but another contributing factor to the increase in rents is the effect of
new luxury rental properties, which put upward pressure on average rents.
In Maplewood and surrounding communities, rents have increased substantially as well since 2010
(nearly 29%). However, the story is slightly different. Due to the lack of new rental housing, increases in
rents have been almost entirely driven by pent-up demand. Although this has meant a delay in
experiencing rapid rent increases, it nevertheless is now impacting the local market. Between 2016 and
2017, the average rent in the area increased 6.2 percent after years of increases that oscillated between
1-2 percent. Because of limited new construction and a delay in rent increases, the overall average rent
in Maplewood is $1,037, which is about 14 percent below the metro area average. However, in 2010
there was only a nine percent difference in the average rent.
Figure 15: Market Rate Rental Housing Vacancy Rate 2000-2018 Figure 16: Market Rate Rental Average Monthly Asking Rent 2000-2018
It should be noted, though, that some of the demographic trends mentioned earlier regarding
homeownership rates may profoundly impact the apartment market. Evidence appears to be growing
that younger age groups are not embracing homeownership the way previous generations did. First,
mortgage standards have returned to more stringent levels where the barrier to entry is much higher
due to substantially larger down payments that are required on the part of mortgagors. Second, with
previous generations created through homeownership is no longer seen as attainable. Third, many
younger households are now saddled with tremendous student debt and qualifying for, much less
affording, a mortgage is much more difficult than compared to previous generations. Finally, with an
increasingly digital-based economy, gone are the expectations that one works for a single employer for
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most of their career. Therefore, homeownership can be viewed as reducing employment flexibility
which further depresses demand for for-sale housing. As a result, younger households are starting to
choose rental housing as a preferred arrangement rather than a temporary situation prior to
homeownership.
If these trends persist or become deeply established, the demand for rental housing could remain high
for many years. These trends, however, are difficult to predict because of the large impact federal
policies have on homeownership. For instance, if the federal government revamps Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, the two big institutions that help support homeownership, that help loosen lending
standards, homeownership may again regain its value to younger generations. Conversely, it is still
unclear how recent changes to federal tax code regarding the mortgage interest deduction affect the
for-sale and rental markets.
COMPETITIVE REVIEW
A review of competitive market rate rental properties was conducted in two parts. First, data was
gathered for 11 Maplewood and surrounding communities in order to
gauge the condition and quality of the most competitive properties to any new potential residential
development in the study area. These properties are profiled in Table 6 and their locations are shown on
Map 4. Due the minimal number of recently developed properties in the trade area (only two market
rate properties have been developed in the last 10 years), the area of focus was expanded to include
Woodbury and the I-694 corridor westward to the Mississippi River.
Because many of the competitive properties in Table 6 are more than 10 years old, a second review was
conducted for market rate properties developed in suburban locations throughout the metro area that
are in close proximity to a regional shopping center or retail district. This additional analysis is to provide
a better indication of what the market is currently achieving in terms of pricing and product positioning,
especially when a property is integrated into a suburban activity center. These properties are profiled in
Table 7 and are also shown on Map 4. Below are key findings from the tables:
Maplewood Area Competitive Rental Properties
The newest property featured in Table 6 is Conifer Ridge, which opened in early 2018 and is located in the
study area. Conifer Ridge represents the best test of the market for new market rate apartments in the study
area. According to CoStar, a national commercial real estate database, Conifer Ridge has already absorbed 120
it slightly above other newer developments in the northeast metro area. With a total of 150 units, the
development includes a club house with a pool and fitness center.
The only other property profiled in Maplewood is Birch Glen, which is located less than a ¼-mile east of the
study area at the intersection of County Road D and Ariel Street. Birch Glen was built in 2002 and is a smaller
development (60 units) compared to newer properties, and thus lacks some of the amenities and features
desired by Moreover, its large unit types (there are no 1BR units in the development) and
overall square footages (there are a dozen 3BR units with nearly 1,300 sf) means the average rent per square
foot is below $1.20, which is on the low end of newer competitive rental properties.
The most expensive property featured in Table 6, Boatworks Commons in White Bear Lake, was built in 2015
and has by far the highest average rents both in terms of monthly fee and on a per square foot basis. The
average rent per square foot is $2.10. This property has a view of White Bear Lake and is within walking
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distance of downtown White Bear Lake, which features a number of restaurants and small shops in a
pedestrian-oriented environment. The proximity to these amenities and the forward looking design of the
property helps account for the higher rents.
Of the 11 Maplewood area properties profiled, there are a total of 1,568 units. The unit mix is generally split
equally between one-bedroom and two-bedroom units with a nominal number of studios and three-bedroom
units.
One-bedroom units range in rent from $1,021 to $1,561 with an average of $1,295. Unit sizes range from 690
to 1,069 square feet with an average of 840 square feet, which translates to an overall average rent per
square foot of $1.54.
Two-bedroom units range in rent from $1,287 to $2,514 with an average of $1,610. Unit sizes range from
1,000 to 1,302 square feet with an average of 1,208 square feet, which translates to an overall average rent
per square foot of $1.33.
All of the properties profiled are located in close proximity to a major arterial highway.
The 10 properties that have reached full occupancy have a vacancy rate of 6.1 percent, which is above the
Maplewood submarket vacancy rate (2.9%) and the metro area vacancy rate (4.9%). Although the vacancy
rate of profiled properties is above equilibrium, half of those profiled have a vacancy rate below equilibrium.
Furthermore, it is common that the newest and most expensive properties in the market will have higher
vacancy rates than the market-wide vacancy rate because these properties are in a position to test just how
much the market is willing to pay for an apartment.
Table 6: Comparable Market Rate Apartments in Maplewood and Nearby Communities
111
Landing
5680 Hadley
Ave N
Oakdale, MN
55128
121
Lakewood
Place
3100 Glen Oaks
Ave
White Bear
Lake, MN
55110
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131
Boatworks
Commons
4495 Lake Ave S
White Bear
Lake, MN
55110
141
Birch Glen Apts
3100 Ariel St N
Maplewood,
MN 55109
Building
151
# of Units: 150 Year Built: 2018
Conifer Ridge
Avg. Unit Size: 800 SF
3090
Property Size: 160,000 SF
Stories: 3
Hazelwood St
Vacancy: 20%
Maplewood,
MN 55109
Unit Mix
Beds Units Avg SF Asking Rent/Unit Asking Rent/SF
Studio 10 670 $1,009 $1.51
1 80 690 $1,325 $1.92
2 60 1,000 $1,550 $1.55
161
Crown Villa
Apts
7260 Guider Dr
Woodbury, MN
55125
171
City Walk at
Woodbury
10225 City
Walk Dr
Woodbury, MN
55129
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181
Regency Hill
10751 Retreat
Ln
Woodbury, MN
55129
191
Lakeview
Terrace
3595 Owasso St
Shoreview, MN
55426
1101
The View at
Long Lake
1300
Northwest
Pkwy
New Brighton,
MN 55112
1111
Cielo
6051 University
Ave
Fridley, MN
55432
Comparable Suburban Rental Properties Near Regional Shopping Centers or Districts
Eight properties were profiled that have been built since 2014. Three are located in the Arbor Lakes retail
district in Maple Grove. Three are located in the Southdale retail district in Edina. One is located in the
Ridgedale retail district in Minnetonka. One is located adjacent to the Twin Cities Premium Outlets center in
Eagan.
All of the properties are market rate developments, except for Bottineau Ridge, which is income-restricted
property located in the Arbor Lakes area.
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The average rent for the market rate properties is $1,537 for a one-bedroom unit or $1.81 per square foot and
$2,230 for a two-bedroom unit or $1.81 per square foot. These rents are significantly higher than those
profiled in Table 6. This is because Table 6 includes a number of properties more than 10 years. It is also
because the west and south metro tends to support slightly higher rents than the east or north metro.
Nevertheless, it does support the notion that properties located in areas with a mixture of uses (i.e., retail,
employment, recreation, and housing) in close proximity easily accessible can support higher rents than
properties not as connected to a mix of uses.
The unit mix at the comparable properties in Table 7 includes a much higher percentage of one-bedroom units
versus two-bedroom units. This is somewhat due, again, to the overall newer age of the properties, which,
regardless of location, are skewing toward smaller unit types. However, it is also indicative of the fact that
areas with a concentration of uses and activities are achieving higher rents, which creates demand for smaller
units. It should be noted, though, that in the central cities this dynamic has led to overall smaller square
footages as well as a higher percentage of smaller unit types. In the suburban context, though, developers
have yet to test the market with overall smaller unit sizes regardless of the type.
The vacancy rate of properties in Table 7 is 7.9 percent, which is above equilibrium. Much of this can be
explained by temporary saturation in the Maple Grove and Edina markets, where multiple developments are
competing with one another. In both markets, nearly 700 new market rate units need to be absorbed at some
of the highest rents among the suburban markets. Moreover, as noted previously, properties achieving such
high rents are testing the limits of the market and thus are making investment decisions assuming equilibrium
is higher than 5.0 percent.
Table 7: Comparable Market Rate Apartments Recently Developed in Suburban Retail Districts
1121
The Reserve
at Arbor
Lakes
11650 Arbor
Lakes Pkwy
Maple
Grove, MN
55369
1131
Skye at
Arbor Lakes
11851
Central Park
Way
Maple
Grove, MN
55369
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1141
Bottineau
Ridge
th
11875 80
Ave N
Maple
Grove, MN
55369
1151
71 France
7161 France
Ave S
Edina, MN
55435
1161
Onyx Edina
6725 York
Ave S
Edina, MN
55435
1171
One
Southdale
Place
6800 York
Ave S
Edina, MN
55435
1181
Flats at
Cedar Grove
3825 Cedar
Grove Pkwy
Eagan, MN
55122
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1191
The Shops
at 1700
1700
Plymouth
Rd
Minnetonka,
MN 55305
Map 4: Competitive and Comparable Market Rate Apartment Properties
13
14
12
11
33
10
9
22
55
44
11
19
7
8
6
16
17
15
18
For-SaleHousing
SALES PRICE AND SALES VOLUME TRENDS
From the late 1990s until the mid-2000s, the for-sale housing market experienced unprecedented
growth fueled by historically low mortgage interest rates, new mortgage products that reduced down
payments, and favorable demographics. By 2007 and especially 2008, it became evident that
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overheated demand had resulted in a housing bubble that once it crashed caused declines in housing
values not seen since the Great Depression 80 years earlier. Prices in many markets, saw declines as
sharp as 50 percent or more. In Maplewood, the median home sales price peaked at $222,000 in 2006
before falling to $139,400 by 2011, a 37 percent decline (Figure 17).
Pricing trends in Maplewood and surrounding communities have generally mirrored those of the metro
area. The 2017 median sales price in Maplewood was $219,999, which is not quite back to the 2006
peak price. Across the metro area, the median sales price exceeded the 2006 peak ($230,000) in 2016
and as of 2017 is $247,900. It should be noted that year-end median sales price figures will not be
available for another six to seven months. However, due to low inventory and continued job growth
throughout the region, home prices have been rising rapidly. Year-over-year data, indicate that prices in
2018 will likely grow by eight to nine percent over 2017.
Sales volumes have also improved dramatically in recent years, which further indicates the overall
strength of the current for-sale housing market. Figure 18 illustrates how the volume of sales in both
Maplewood and metro area bottomed out along with prices around 2011 and yet is now exceeding pre-
recession volume of sales.
Another indicator to gauge the for-sale market is the number of average number of days a home is on
the market. In Figure 19, the average number of days a home is on the market has dropped significantly
since the bottom of housing bust and is now just above 40 days in Maplewood and around 50 days
across the metro area. Rapid sales means there is not enough supply of homes for sale to meet demand.
This is one of the reasons why prices have been rising rapidly in recent years.
Figure 17: Median Home Sales Price 2005-2017
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Figure 18: Number of Home Sales 2011-2017 Figure 19: Average Days on Market 2011-2017
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RETAIL MARKET
Retail is one of the most competitive and fluid real estate market sectors. Existing stores are constantly
being challenged by new concepts, locations and competitors. Turnover is common and tenants and
landlords must constantly be listening to the market and making strategic reinvestments or tenant mix
changes to ensure their centers are vibrant and profitable.
It is important to monitor this constant market change to ensure that the total size of available retail
space is in line with retail demand. When available retail space is beyond the size that can be supported
by market demand, vacancies become more common. For retail areas dependent on a large retailer,
ctice of
co-
remains active in the area.
Excess retail supply also puts downward pressure on lease rates, which can reduce the cash flow
available to landlords for making the strategic reinvestments necessary for their property to remain
competitive. This can lead to an overall decline in retail quality and can lead to negative impacts that can
be a community concern.
The other reason to monitor the size of the retail market is to prevent an overly restrictive retail
environment. When a community does not provide sufficient retail area to satisfy market demand, then
the variety of retail options available to its customers may be reduced and economic activity is diverted
to other retail districts or communities.
It is, therefore, important that communities attempt to find a balance between the amount of retail
development and retail market demand.
Retail Typologies
The design of retail districts in urban areas has changed significantly during the 20th century, expanding
from walkable town centers to auto-oriented shopping centers to the diverse types of retail centers we
see today. Many of the changes have been linked to metropolitan growth patterns, changes in urban
transportation systems including the rising dominance of the automobile and evolving retailing
technologies.
One result of this change is that communities have inherited a mix of current and older retail centers
that vary in economic performance and physical character. Whether a retail location is older, such as a
downtown, or brand new, there is a promising opportunity to create pedestrian-friendly uses by
adopting urban design approaches that emphasize links to local neighborhoods, walkability, transit
access, complementary land uses, and natural amenities.
A clear understanding of the form and dynamics of retail centers is helpful when positioning them in a
community. They can vary dramatically based on:
Physical size
Built form
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Metropolitan location
Transportation access
Size of trade area
Mix of services and tenants
Presence of competing centers
Many forces can affect the performance of retail districts over time:
Changes in the regional transportation system can alter the relative situation of districts (e.g., freeway or
transit station proximity).
A boom in construction of retail centers during the 1960s-1980s resulted in an overbuilt retail market in many
communities today.
Aging retail centers often need major renovation, expansion, or repositioning to be competitive.
Changing demographics in the trade area may reduce buying power or create a market mismatch for a retail
district.
Smaller retail districts often lack space for expansion and struggle to compete with areas that can
accommodate stores that are increasingly larger (e.g., supermarkets and discount stores).
Competition can increase due to new and expanding retail districts within five miles.
Diversification of shopping center types with new formats and popular tenants increases the competitive
challenge.
The area from which a retail district draws the majority of its business is known as the trade area. The
boundary for a trade area is determined by many factors, but mostly by the location of the next closest
district offering a similar complement of goods and services. Ideally, the trade area for a given district
has no other competitors for several miles in each direction, giving the district the strong advantage of
convenience to the households and employers surrounding it. In reality, travel routes and intervening
land uses (e.g., large rail yards with no crossings) often make one district more convenient than another
Determining the trade area around a retail district depends on the amount of goods and services it can
offer to the surrounding household base; the level of offering is usually related to the size of the district
and the order of goods and services available.
Goods are often classified on a relative scale from lower order to higher order goods. Lower order goods
are those goods that consumers need frequently and, therefore, are willing to travel only short
distances for them. Higher order goods are needed less frequently, so consumers are willing to travel
farther for them. These longer trips are usually undertaken not only for purchasing purposes but other
activities as well. Figure 20 demonstrates where some of the common goods and services might fall
along this continuum.
Figure 20: Hierarchy of Common Retail Goods and Services
Groceries
Hair
Appliances
Tobacco
Fine
Cuts
Automobiles
Dining
Low Order GoodsHigh Order Goods
-Unplanned purchase-Planned purchase
-Low cost per unit-High cost per unit
Clothing
Coffee
Furniture
Liquor
-Minimal selection-Maximum selection
Fast
Sporting
Jewelry
-Frequent purchase-Infrequent purchase
Food
Goods
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It is also important to keep in mind that retail trade areas vary considerably, depending on surrounding
housing density and the attraction of the specific retail tenants. Stores in higher-density areas can thrive
with smaller trade areas.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RETAIL DEMAND AND DEMOGRAPHICS
Retailers capture sales from five main categories of consumers: residents, daily workers, commuters,
intermittent (transitory) visitors, and destination shoppers. Of these, residents are usually the main
source of income for most retailers.
simply trying to capture drive-by traffic. The strongest retail locations do a bit of both; they serve the
residents living in the surrounding area and, because they are located on high-traffic streets, they
capture business from commuters, intermittent visitors, and daily workers.
Resident Consumers
Spend, on average, between 10-20 percent of household income at local retailers (not including auto
spending); this is far more per capita and per-trip than other consumer types.
Support a wider variety of retail goods and personal services than daily workers or transitory visitors;
everything from haircuts to hardware to prescriptions.
Daily Workers
Spend a fraction on local retail compared to residents but can be regular customers for restaurants, coffee
shops, and other specific retailers.
Generally, limit their spending time to the working hours during Monday-Friday.
Spend in narrow categories such as restaurants and convenience/gas.
Intermittent Visitors
Are difficult to predict but can be significant sources of business to retailers located on major thoroughfares
with good access.
Commuters
Do not generate high levels of patronage for most retail tenants.
Like daily workers, can become regular customers for specific retailers such as coffee shops or
convenience/gas stations.
Destination Shoppers
Will drive significant distances and make special trips to shop at specific stores.
Can be loyal customers for the retailers they patronize.
May often spend a substantial amount of money at one visit, or over the course of a year.
Given that residents (the cons
retailers, the alignment between the demographic characteristics of the surrounding population and the
tenant mix of a retail district is crucial. In an ideal world, the mix of tenants at a retail district would
satisfy all of the regular needs of the surrounding population.
For example, a strip retail center located adjacent to a subdivision of starter homes with young families
would offer such tenants as a grocery store, a hardware store, a drugstore/pharmacy, and family
restaurants among others. A retail center in an inner-city urban area with few families would offer
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independent coffee shops, bookstores, niche restaurants with bars, and other specialty stores catering
to singles and professionals.
Vacancy and Rent Trends
Retail vacancy and lease rates were analyzed for the northeast metro, which consists of northeastern
Ramsey County and northern Washington County, and compared against the rates for the entire metro
area (Figures 21 and 22). The following are key findings from the figures:
The retail vacancy rate for the northeast metro is currently 3.1 percent, which almost the same vacancy rate
as the metro area. Since 2006, the northeast metro has consistently had a vacancy rate at or below that of the
metro area.
In 2011, retail vacancy in the northeast metro and the entire metro area, peaked at a little over 5.0 percent.
This was due to combination of rapid expansion of the retail supply during the early 2000s and recession-
driven closure of many retail businesses. As the economy recovered and construction slowed down
significantly, vacancy has generally been on the decline for several years. However, based on the data, it
appears that the vacancy rate in the northeast metro has stabilized around 3.0 percent.
Quoted lease rates for retail space in the northeast metro are currently just over $14.50 per square foot.
Quoted lease rates have been climbing steadily since late 2016 after several years of decline dating back to
2007 and the start of the recession. This pattern generally follows what has occurred metro-wide with respect
to trends in quoted lease rates. The only difference has been that the northeast metro tends to slightly higher
highs and lower lows than the entire metro area.
The sluggish rate of increase in quoted rents, despite dropping vacancies and an improving economy, can also
be attributed to traditional bricks and mortar retailers that are struggling to position themselves in an
increasingly digital world and a commensurate demand for online retailing. As a result, there is a lot of
uncertainty in the marketplace and property owners are finding it difficult to raise rents in such a climate,
especially for long-term leases.
Figure 21: Retail Vacancy Trends 2006-2018 Figure 22: Average Quoted Retail Lease Rates 2006-2018
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Retail Development Trends
Annual construction of new retail space was analyzed across the metro area and for the northeast
metro. Based on data from CoStar, Figures 23 and 24 illustrate how retail construction declined
dramatically when the recession began in the late 1990s both across the metro area and in the
northeast metro. However, unlike housing, retail development has not significantly rebounded in the 10
years since the recession. The reasons for the lack of a rebound in development are likely similar to why
lease rates for retail are not increasing more rapidly in light of lower vacancy and an improved economy.
Simply put, shopping patterns are shifting and the existing supply of retail space is not meeting the
Figure 23: Metro Area Annual Retail Development (sq ft) Figure 24: Northeast Metro Annual Retail Development (sq ft)
Mall District Analysis
Maplewood Mall anchors a retail district that contains nearly 2.3 million square feet of retail space,
cluding a wide array of prominent national retailers es and
insuchrn
Given the household
incomes within the trade area, retailers in and adjacent to the study area tend to cater more to
shoppers interested in value pricing as opposed to more luxury or status-driven goods.
Based on the location of competitive retail districts, the trade area generally includes northeastern
Ramsey County and northern Washington County. Map 5 shows the location of the trade area relative
to other important clusters of retail properties. From the map, one can see how large swaths of the
trade area lack any sizable retail properties. This is largely due to the fact that residential development
in these portions of the trade area is at a low enough density to not support any critical mass of retail
space.
As a regional shopping district, the study area and its environs competes with other regional shopping
districts. Map 5 also shows how the largest retail properties, those over 250,000 square feet are almost
always situated along a major highway or, in particular, at a crossroads of two major highways. This is
because the study area developed at a time when automobile use was the dominant mode of
transportation. Therefore, the predominant retail form reflects this condition and thus contains
significant land needed for the movement and storage of vehicles.
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Map 5: Distribution of Large Retail Properties in the Twin Cities Metro Area
Trade Area
square feet of leasable retail space, vacant square feet, vacancy trends, rent trends, recent construction,
average property size, and net absorption of space since 2014. The map shows a 3-mile radius around
each district, if it is anchored by an enclosed shopping center or not, the relative size of the household
base within a 3-mile radius, and the breakdown of households according to income. The following are
key findings from the table and map.
14 retail districts were analyzed; half of the districts are anchored by an enclosed shopping mall, the other half
are not. The Shingle Creek district in Brooklyn Center was anchored by an enclosed shopping mall called
Brookdale until 2010, when it was closed, redeveloped into freestanding anchors, and rebranded as Shingle
Creek Crossing.
The Maplewood Mall district is the most northeasterly located regional shopping district in the metro area. It
ranks 9 out of 14 in leasable square feet (2.3 million); 8 out of 14 for total households (27,800); and 12 out of
14 for households with incomes above $100,000 (8,200).
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The overall vacancy rate for all 14 districts is 3.1%. This is very close to the metro-wide retail vacancy rate of
3.0%. The Maplewood Mall district has a current vacancy rate of 4.4%, slightly above the metro-wide rate.
However, since 2014, the Maplewood Mall district has seen its vacancy rate drop over 50% from a peak of
9.7%. This indicates that the district has been able to respond to improving economic conditions by
successfully absorbing excess space.
The Maplewood Mall district has absorbed nearly 100,000 square feet of lease space since 2014, which is
about five percent of its overall leasable space. This is indicator that the district has been able to absorb space
despite store closures and other common vacancy issues.
Average quoted rents among the 14 districts is $17.92 per square foot. This is roughly $2.75 more per square
foot than the metro-wide average asking rent, which is not surprising since regional shopping districts tend to
attract a lot of national retailers and have the highest traffic counts associated with them. The Maplewood
Mall district, however, has the lowest asking rent of the 14 districts analyzed at $13.50 per square foot.
Although rent data can often be skewed by a small number of listings, the Maplewood Mall district has
consistently had an average quoted asking rent near the bottom of the districts analyzed going back to 2010.
This indicates that the overall sales volume achievable in the Maplewood Mall districts is below other
competitive regional shopping districts.
Table 8: Retail Market Statistics by Competitive Regional Shopping District
Const Under Avg 5-Year Net
Prop- Leasable Vacant Sq 201020142018201020142018(SF)Const PropAbsoprtion
ertiesSq FtFtQ2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2'10-'18(SF) Sq Ft
Retail District
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Map 6: Demographic Statistics by Competitive Regional Shopping District
Riverdale
Northtown
Arbor Lakes
Shingle Creek
Maplewood Mall
Rosedale
Ridgedale
Woodbury Lakes
South Robert
Southdale
Eden Prairie Center
Eagan Town Center
Apple Valley CBD
Burnsville Center
461212
2
Sources: CoStar; Perkins+Will
Total Households
3 mile radius/trade area
within 3-mile Radius
Retail districts anchored by
an enclosed shopping mall
Retail districts NOT anchored
by an enclosedshopping mall
Households with
Income <$100,000
Households with
Income >$100,000
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OFFICE MARKET
This section provides an overview of the regional and local market trends for office space. This section
concludes with a demand analysis that forecasts how much future need there will be for office space
and the likely impact it will have on the redevelopment potential in the study area.
Office Typologies
The office market is a broad category that encompasses many different types of properties that are
typically differentiated by the building class (A, B, C); visibility, transportation access, structure, size of
tenant spaces, and supporting services. Some of the office market subcategories are as follows:
HIGH RISE OR SIGNATURE BUILDING
Office buildings of this type place a premium on visibility and image. They are typically multi-tenant
buildings with a high level of architectural interest. Level of finish is generally high. The tenant mix tends
to be businesses that are willing to pay a premium for image including corporate headquarters, law
firms, financial advisors, advertising and other types of business services. These buildings are typically
found in the commercial center of a metropolitan area, at the intersection of high volume highways, and
near affluent suburban locations.
LOW-RISE, MULTI-STORY BUILDING
Office buildings of this type have the most variety of physical conditions and tenant mix. Class A
buildings in this class can have many similar features to the high rise buildings and command elevated
rents. Class B and C space can be dated and needs to compete more on price. Typical locations for this
class of office space are near regional malls and along arterial roadways in suburban locations. The
tenant mix has a wide variety and can include smaller corporate headquarters, medical, technology,
design, government and business services.
SINGLE-STORY BUILDING - RETAIL
Office buildings of this type share a lot of physical and location characteristics with neighborhood and
strip retail. Buildings of this type often are located near retail areas where there is a reasonable amount
of visibility and customer traffic. Tenant spaces are generally smaller in size and the businesses usually
have some level of walk-in customer traffic that justifies the need for visibility. Typical tenants in this
building type include insurance, real estate brokerage, medical services, and financial services.
SINGLE-STORY BUILDING - FLEX
Office buildings of this type share many physical and location characteristics with light industrial
buildings. They are often located in lower visibility areas where land prices are lower, enabling a reduced
rent structure in comparison to other office types. Transportation access is important but does not
always need to be direct as walk in traffic is often not a key issue for the tenants. Building shells involve
industrial construction techniques and building heights. Tip up concrete panels or concrete block are
common shell materials, but the level of finish often includes some retail finish including colored
concrete, stucco, spandrel glass, tenant signage, and attempts to vary the appearance of flat rooflines or
building faces. The level of aesthetic enhancement varies greatly in this sector based on each
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require back office warehousing or light manufacturing; construction/repair related businesses that
maintain some inventory, such as window or garage door installers; price sensitive large office users,
such as call centers; and startup businesses that seek the lower cost and expansion flexibility of a flex
building.
Distribution of Class A Office Properties
Although Class A office buildings represent a small proportion of the overall office market (i.e., a little
over one-quarter of all office space is in Class A buildings), they have an important effect on the office
market because their signature status helps brand submarkets as the kind of office districts that will
attract regional and international headquarters as well as other high profile employers. Map 7 displays
the location of Class A non-medical office properties in the metro area.
Map 7: Class A Office Properties in the Twin Cities Metro Area
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There are four dominant office districts that account for 86 percent of all Class A office space:
Downtown Minneapolis; the I-494 corridor in Bloomington; Downtown St. Paul; and the I-394 corridor.
The map illustrates not only where Class A office properties tend to cluster but also where they are
absent. The entire northeastern portion of the metro area, including all of the trade area, does not have
any Class A office properties.
Employment Trends
Demand for multi--
based industry sectors of Information, Finance, and Professional Services/Management. Table 9 and
Figures 24 and 25 present data on the employment trends by industry sector for trade area as well as
the metro area and the United States. The following are key findings from the data:
As of 2015 (the most recent year data is available), there were approximately 80,000 jobs in the trade area.
This was an 11 percent increase since 2010 and a 15 percent increase since 2002. The rate of job growth in
trade area has consistently outpaced that of the metro area and the United States over this time period.
The most important industry sector in the trade area is Eds/Meds (Education and Healthcare Services). This
sector accounts for almost 3 out of every 10 jobs in the trade area. The next most important industry sector is
PDR, which are made up of businesses focused on production (i.e., manufacturing and construction),
distribution, and repair, which account for roughly 1 out of every 5 jobs.
Job growth in Eds/Meds sector has accounted for over 85 percent of all new jobs since 2002 in the trade area.
This is consistent with the metro area and national experience.
Jobs in the Knowledge industry sectors (i.e., information, finance, professional services, and management)
typically contain the most office-based jobs. However, these sectors are not well represented in the trade
area. They only account for 17 percent of all jobs, whereas in the metro area these sectors account for 29
percent of all jobs.
The ratio of local jobs to households is an indicator of how strong the local employment base is relative to the
region. Communities with a high number of jobs per household suggest that it is an important employment
center. In the trade area, there are 0.96 jobs for every household. In the metro area, the ratio is 1.48 jobs for
every household. This suggests that the trade area functions more as a place to live than a place to work.
Focusing on Knowledge sector jobs, which drive demand for office space, the difference in the jobs-household
ratio is even more dramatic. In the trade area, there are 0.16 Knowledge sector jobs for every household. In
the metro area, the ratio is 0.42 jobs for every household, three times the proportion.
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Table 9: Employment Trends by Industry Sector 2002-2015
TRADE AREA
Industry20022005201020152002200520102015'02-'05'05-'10'10-'15'02-'05'05-'10'10-'15
7-COUNTY METRO AREA
Industry20022005201020152002200520102015'02-'05'05-'10'10-'15'02-'05'05-'10'10-'15
UNITED STATES
Industry20022005201020152002200520102015'02-'05'05-'10'10-'15'02-'05'05-'10'10-'15
Figure 25: 2015 Employment Profile by Industry Sector Figure 26: Trade Area Employment by Industry Sector 2002 and 2015
23,627
19,503
16,976
14,482
14,082
13,304
12,327
11,197
8,174
5,622
3,359
2,536
2,288
2,166
Industry
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OFFICE EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
According to the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), the Twin
Cities Metro Area is projected to have a net increase of roughly 25,500 (3.2%) office jobs between 2014
and 2024 (Table 10). Clearly, 25,000 new office workers by 2024 will increase demand for office space
throughout the metro area. However, several trends will temper this demand in the trade area.
First, office-based employment is currently underrepresented in the trade area. Therefore, unless a
concerted effort is made to incentivize a major office employer to the trade area, it is unlikely that
organic growth in the region will be attracted to the trade area in greater numbers than the historic
pattern
Second, the average space per office worker has been declining in recent years due to greater
acceptance of telecommuting, fiscal response to the great recession, less need for document storage,
and greater interest in more collaborative work settings and shared workspaces. Historically, 250 square
feet per office worker was the standard used by many architects when designing office space. This
average has decreased to 150 square feet of space per worker and may decrease even more if current
trends persist.
Table 10: Projected Growth in Metro Area Employment by Occupation 2014-2024
Occupation Category20142024# Change% Change
Business and Financial Operations131,219138,6527,4335.7%
Computer and Mathematical 76,74983,6636,9149.0%
Management 128,324134,0305,7064.4%
Education, Training, and Library 92,08995,4383,3493.6%
Community and Social Service 33,73636,9663,2309.6%
Legal 16,21117,1739625.9%
Life, Physical, and Social Science 17,03517,8388034.7%
Architecture and Engineering 37,78038,0883080.8%
Office and Administrative Support 271,644268,364-3,280-1.2%
Office Occupations804,787830,21225,4253.2%
Personal Care and Service 97,232111,05213,82014.2%
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 90,427102,74112,31413.6%
Healthcare Support 48,13257,2339,10118.9%
Medical/Healthcare Service Occupations235,791271,02635,23514.9%
Food Preparation and Serving Related 134,928143,2608,3326.2%
Sales and Related 179,497184,8635,3663.0%
Construction and Extraction 58,53062,8334,3037.4%
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance57,01159,1472,1363.7%
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 55,44156,7771,3362.4%
Transportation and Material Moving 98,19699,1459491.0%
Protective Service 29,28730,0147272.5%
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media36,26736,7504831.3%
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 2,6862,294-392-14.6%
Production 116,888112,919-3,969-3.4%
Non-Office and Non-Medical 768,731788,00219,2712.5%
Total, All Occupations1,809,3091,889,24079,9314.4%
Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development
Third, with declining space needs, the current supply of office buildings will likely be able to
accommodate a larger work force as spaces are reconfigured to meet current trends. Finally, not all
office workers will work in a traditional office building. There are many examples of businesses that
choose to locate typical office jobs in flex industrial space or even marginal retail space.
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Table 10 also presents data on the occupational projections for healthcare and related fields. DEED
expects these occupations will grow by more than 35,000 (15%) between 2014 and 2024. This is a
continuation of trend that have been occurring for several decades. Unlike traditional office
occupations, the trade area and, in particular the study area, have a strong concentration of these types
of jobs. Therefore, unless the recent merger of Fairview and HealthEast results in scaling back their
operations, it is likely that overall growth in the industry will drive new employment growth in the trade
area.
Vacancy and Rent Trends
Office vacancy and lease rates were analyzed for the trade area and compared against the rates for all
office properties throughout the metro area (Figures 26 and 27). The following are key findings from the
figures:
The vacancy rate in the trade area is currently is just over four percent. This is a significant decrease since
2011 when the office vacancy rate peaked at nearly nine percent. Since 2006 the trade area vacancy rate has
been consistently well below that of the metro area and is currently about half the metro area vacancy rate
(8%).
The broader office market trend has been somewhat more mixed. The recession led to a sharp increase in
unemployment, which directly impacted the need for office space as many companies downsized during this
time. Coming out of the recession, though, as the economy improved and companies began to hire more
workers, technology and cultural forces are reducing the amount of square feet needed per worker. The result
is that many companies may actually have larger workforces than before the recession yet they do not require
as much office space. This helps explain why office vacancies have not declined as much as one would expect
in a period of employment expansion.
Quoted lease rates for office space in the trade area are currently just below $15.50 per square foot. This is in
line with the metro area average quoted lease rate ($15.33 per square foot). Quoted lease rates in the trade
area have generally been increasing since 2015, which is consistent with traditional patterns in which declining
vacancy will yield a lack of supply which will place upward pressure on rents.
Figure 27: Office Vacancy Trends 2006-2018 Figure 28: Average Quoted Rent for Office Space 2006-2018
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MEDICAL OFFICE
growing class of office properties that primarily serve the medical market. Within the trade area, over 23
percent of all office space is classified as medical office space. Across the metro area, the proportion is
less than six percent.
The medical office market shares many of the same traits as the general office market regarding building
types and preferred locations. In addition, medical offices have traditionally tended to cluster together,
often near major hospitals or clinics. This cooperative location behavior increases efficiencies with
sharing capital intensive equip
between clinics and hospitals or specialty clinics.
In recent years, as medical costs have soared and the industry has begun to reexamine its service
delivery methods, innovations have begun to emerge that can run counter to the clustering behavior.
One example is the urgent care clinic that can be located in non-traditional locations and also the
introduction of small, nurse practitioner clinics in retail settings such as drug stores or big box stores like
Target and Wal-Mart. Additional medical services are also being provided in nursing homes and assisted
living facilities that previously would have only been available in a hospital or a clinical setting. Finally, a
number of specialty clinics such as cancer or cardio clinics have begun to emerge although the specialty
clinics are often still located near established medical service cluster areas.
ntal actions due
to the impact of Medicare on the entire medical system. Changes in funding levels or reimbursement
formulas can result in services being provided in different manners and at different levels. With the
aging baby boom generation entering peak medical service age brackets, this appears to be a temporary
condition and there is still a lot of interest being paid to this market sector in spite of the economic
downturn.
Market Trends
According to CoStar the northeast metro contains 73 medical office buildings with a combined total of
just over 1,000,000 square feet of space. This is approximately 12 square feet per household in the trade
area. In comparison, metro-wide the rate is roughly 9.6 square feet per household. Given the recent
construction of the HealthEast medical building, this will likely meet most of the pent-up demand for
medical office space in the trade area. The outlier would be whether the recent HealthEast-Fairview
merger would result in investment in specialties that would draw medical consumers from outside the
trade area.
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Map 8: Map of Medical Office Buildings in the Twin Cities Metro Area
MEDICAL OFFICE VACANCY AND RENT TRENDS
The vacancy rate for medical office space in the northeast metro has oscillated between six and 11
percent between 2006 and 2018 (Figure 28). The current vacancy rate is just under seven percent and
has now been below the metro area vacancy rate for close to two years. The trend of frequent peaks
and valleys in the vacancy rate has been the case in both the northeast metro and across the metro
area. These peaks and valleys are indicative of a market in which declining vacancy often results in rapid
development, which then takes several quarters to be absorbed.
The average quoted lease rate for medical office space in the northeast metro is just under $21 per
square foot (Figure 29). This is significantly higher than the average quoted rate across the metro area
($15 per square foot). Since 2006, the quoted lease rate in the northeast metro has been about $2-4
more per square foot than the metro area. Some of this difference can be attributed to the fact that a
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which woul
because of the presence of more specialized services as well.
Figure 29: Medical Office Vacancy Trends 2006-2018 Figure 30: Average Quoted Rent for Medical Office Space 2006-2018
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PLANNEDAND PROPOSED
DEVELOPMENTS
Staff at each of the cities adjacent to Maplewood were contacted regarding any planned or proposed
developments that might impact the market potential for new development in the study area. In
addition, local publications and data sources were also researched for any news about upcoming
development projects. The following is a review of planned and proposed future development by city.
Little Canada
There are no planned or proposed developments in Little Canada that could substantively impact
development opportunities in the study area.
Mahtomedi
Mahtomedi Flats is a 36-unit market rate apartment building that will be open for occupancy in June
2018. It is located next to an Aldi grocery store near the intersection of East County Line Road (Highway
120)and Wildwood Road, which is about three miles from the study area.
Although Mahtomedi Flats is not of a sufficient size to impact the market dynamics of the study area, it
will be an important test of how much trade area households are willing to spend on new market rate
rental apartments. Rents will start at $1,450 for the smallest one-bedroom unit and top out at $2,800
for the largest two-bedroom unit. These rents translate to just over $2.00 per square foot, which will
place property near the top of the trade area market.
the units (5) have been pre-leased.
North St. Paul
The City of North St. Paul has been working for many years with the owner of a 20-acre site located in
the southeast quadrant of Highway 36 and McKnight Road that was formerly an Anchor Block
manufacturing facility. Inland Development has an option on the site and, according to city staff, is
looking for a housing developer. The southern half of the site is envisioned as having roughly 100
townhomes or a larger apartment building, while the north half of the site, which would have visibility
from Highway 36, is envisioned as a commercial use.
The Anchor Block site is less than two miles from the study area. Due to its overall size, access to
Highway 36, and access to the Gateway State Trail, which runs through the site, any development could
be of a scale and quality to directly compete with new development in the study area. Despite its
competitive characteristics, though, redevelopment of the Anchor Block site has always been challenged
by its proximity to heavy industry immediately to its east. This will especially have an impact on the
north half of the site. Furthermore, despite its proximity to the Gateway State Trail, the site does not
lend itself to being connected to surrounding neighborhoods and the nearby downtown business
district.
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DigniCare is planning to start construction on a 32-unit assisted living facility in spring 2019. It will be
located near the intersection of Highway 36 and Highway 120 on the site of the former school district
bus garage.
The city also owns several parcels in downtown North St. Paul that have long been planned for
redevelopment. However, due to the smaller size of the sites, additional properties would need to be
acquired to make a feasible development. Currently, the city has no plans to acquire additional sites.
Paul
St.
The Hillcrest Golf Club in northeastern St. Paul is currently for-sale. Located a little over three miles from
the study area, the 110-acre property is likely to be redeveloped once it is sold. According to the local
media, neighborhood interests have stated that they would like to see a mixture of residential and retail
uses on the site. However, the city has yet to create a small area plan for the former golf course. This
site has the size and lack of encumbrances (i.e., it is essentially vacant land) to compete directly with
new development in the study area, especially residential uses.
Despite its positive attributes, however, the Hillcrest Golf Club site lacks two key qualities that would
make it directly competitive with the study area. First, it is totally surrounded by single-family
residential. Therefore, it would be politically challenging to expect significant portions of the site to be
developed as multifamily housing. Second, there is no existing retail or commercial uses on or near the
site. Therefore, any retail amenity would have to be developed. This will take time and it will need to be
a very small scale as the traffic volumes and patterns serving the site would not support a critical mass
of retail.
Vadnais Heights
The developer of Conifer Ridge, Peter Stalland, has proposed a similar market rate apartment property
located at County Road F and Centerville Road, which is about four miles from the study area. The
proposal is for 156 units in a five-story building. No approvals have been granted for the project.
Two medical office buildings are currently under construction: 1) a 9,000 square foot building located
next to Walmart; and 2) a 20,000 square foot building anchored by HealthEast located near Highway 96
and Oak Grove Parkway. The first building is small enough to not have a significant impact on the study
area. The second building is being developed by the Davis Group the same group that developed the
recently completed HealthEast medical building in the study area. The second building is nearly six miles
from the study area and clearly serves a different trade area than the medical office buildings in the
study. It will have very little impact on the study area.
White Bear Lake
Troy Mathwig, who developed Mahtomedi Flats, has proposed a series of four apartment buildings on
the four corners that comprise the intersection of Bellaire Avenue and County Road E. The location is
approximately two miles from the study area. Current or recent uses on each corner have been gas
stations. Each building would be three-stories, and the combined total number of units was to be 99.
Organized opposition to the project from neighbors has tabled the project indefinitely.
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The City of White Bear Lake has targeted the Wildwood Shopping Center for possible redevelopment
due to longstanding occupancy issues and two outlot buildings in poor condition. Located in the
northeast quadrant of Wildwood Road and Highway 120, the site is roughly three miles from the study
area. Very preliminary discussions have considered residential uses above retail or a similar commercial
use. Walgreens owns a store adjacent to the shopping center in question and would have a key role in
any redevelopment. Currently, this is not a high priority for the city.
The City has also been received a preliminary proposal for a multifamily development on a 10-acre site
near County Road E and Highway 61. Based on early discussions with the developer, the project size
would range anywhere from 140 to 200 units. This proposal is considered very tentative by the city.
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EXPERT INTERVIEWS
Previous sections of this report presented quantitative data on the local and regional market for
residential, retail, and office uses. In order to augment this data with more qualitative data, several
developers familiar with the study area and stakeholders located in the study area were interviewed to
gather their opinions and perspectives on the opportunities and barriers to future change in the study
area.
The following are key findings from the interviews:
the local market is older and less affluent, which limits certain opportunities, but that there are definitely still
opportunities to be had.
Several interviewees were concerned about the future of Maplewood Mall noting that it is an important asset
to the area because it generates so much activity and is a symbol of the community. One interviewee even
stated that they would need to know more definite plans about the future of the mall before moving forward
on an opportunity in or near the study area. Another interviewee stressed how important it was to gauge the
competition for Maplewood Mall and then commented whether or not there might be too much supply in the
market. This same interviewee added that Rosedale appears to be on an upward trajectory because they are
expanding when most malls are contracting.
It was observed that the retail mix between Maplewood Mall and adjacent retail properties was not optimal.
For example, the area was lacking a full-service sporting goods store and family-based entertainment options.
Interviewees with residential experience noted that the housing market is strong and that interest has
definitely been rising for quality suburban locations (i.e., walkable, transit accessible, and proximate to
recreational and retail amenities) as more and more central city sites are developed. One interviewee was
particularly bullish on the value that walkable environments, mass transit availability, and bike trails bring to
characteristics.
Some interviewees felt that the big driver in housing right now is what would be described as -
housing developments (i.e., underground parking, high-end finishes, extensive common area facilities, etc.).
Given the concern that many local markets are not able to achieve the level of rents that support these
developments, it was suggested that the City consider any number of tools that would assist the development
community in these types of developments (e.g., TIF, tax abatement, lower land costs, etc.).
All the interviewees felt that higher density development was not only what the market was demanding, but
the view on density
observation because it underscores the level of uncertainty among developers and stakeholders about how
some of the technological changes we are experiencing will fundamentally alter the development process.
Considering the concentration of medical office buildings in the study area, one interviewee commented that
the market for medical office buildings looks promising given the long-term forecast of the healthcare
industry. However, they added that the market in the study area is likely because the
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HealthEast medical building consolidated operations from several other buildings in the area, which will now
have vacancies.
The recent merger of HealthEast and Fairview elicited some concern among the interviewees. One person
her leadership in the healthcare
-merger.
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CONCLUSIONS
Earlier chapters have assessed important market trends at both a local and regional scale and applied
them to the real and perceived conditions of the study area. This analysis provides important context for
creating a development framework to help guide planners and stakeholders through a period of
transformation.
This chapter builds upon previous analyses to create a more complete picture of which market trends
will most profoundly affect the study area in the coming years. Ideally, a richer understanding of market
trends will help identify where and what types of public intervention are needed most to catalyze
investment, or, conversely, where new controls and policies may be needed to protect existing assets in
the face of rapid change.
The chapter begins with high-level calculations that attempt to quantify market demand in order to
provide a basic understanding of the potential magnitude of change in the foreseeable future. From
there, key conclusions are drawn regarding the short and long-term development potential in the study
area, which is then followed by strategies for how to best navigate such market forces.
Demand Calculations
The following demand calculations are meant to provide a sense of the potential volume of growth in
the study area over a 20-year period. The calculations are not intended to measure the current market
feasibility of a specific project at a specific location, which is beyond the scope of this study.
Nevertheless, measuring market demand even at a broad scale helps frame which real estate sectors
will likely outbid others and potentially result in land use changes, which can ultimately impact the need
for improvements to the public realm, the transportation network, location and type of utilities, among
others.
HOUSING DEMAND
Demand for new housing in a given locale comes from three primary sources: 1) overall household
growth due to in-migration or formation of new households; 2) replacement of existing housing stock
that has been destroyed, become obsolete, or converted to other uses; and 3) changes in housing
preferences. Housing preferences can change for a variety of reasons, but the most common are a
change in the type or size of a household, change in household income (positive or negative), change in
lifestyle (e.g., increased travel, owning a second home, emergence of a disability), or simply a desire for
change in and of itself (i.e., style or fashion).
Measuring housing demand at such levels is essential when evaluating a specific project at a specific site
at a specific point in time. This study is concerned with broader questions regarding housing demand
over a larger area (i.e., North End study area) and longer period of time (i.e., 20+ years). Therefore,
detailed forecasts are not only unnecessary but would become quickly irrelevant and meaningless.
Nevertheless, it is still important to quantify future housing demand, even at a broad scale, to better
understand how trends in demand may compete with, and possibly outbid, other land uses throughout
the study area.
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Table 11 summarizes the methodology used to estimate the demand for new housing in the study area
through 2040. The calculation includes estimates for market rate and affordable forms of rental housing
as well as multifamily ownership housing (i.e., condominiums and townhomes).
Based on the calculation, the study area could capture up to 540 units of market rate rental housing,
1,400 units of affordable rental housing, and 270 condominium and/or townhome units through 2040.
In order to meet this demand, the calculation assumes that significant land within the study area would
be made available for redevelopment.
Table 11: Study Area Housing Demand Calculation 2018-2040
2018-20232024-20302031-20402018-2040
+
+
=
RentOwnRentOwnRentOwnRentOwn
x
x
=
MR*MR*MR*MR*
Aff*Aff*Aff*Aff*
x
=
-
=
x
Potential Study Housing Demand=12240870162411712516121325351,431273
* MR = Market Rate; Aff = Affordable
Source: Perkins+Will
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RETAIL DEMAND
The retail industry is undergoing significant changes as it adapts to an increasingly digital economy.
Understandably, retailers are struggling with how to assess their real estate needs in an environment in
which consumers now have multiple channels with which to access goods and shifting transportation
patterns are altering how people get from point A to point B. In light of all this uncertainty, it almost
makes quantifying future retail space needs meaningless. Nevertheless, such an exercise can provide
valuable insight into the magnitude of potential change vis-à-vis recent historic trends.
Table 12: Trade Area Retail Demand Calculations 2018-2040
2018202320302040
1
Trade Area Households86,49692,23697,933105,161
2
(times) Average Household Income
x$87,000$87,000$87,000$87,000
(equals) Aggregate Household Income$7,525,152,000$8,024,532,000$8,520,171,000$9,149,007,000
=
3
(times) Percent of Income Spent on Retail Goods and Services
x 24.0%23.0%22.0%22.0%
(equals) Resident Household Consumer Dollars$1,806,036,480$1,845,642,360$1,874,437,620$2,012,781,540
=
4
(plus) Retail Spending by Daytime Workers
+$9,750,000$10,140,000$10,725,000$11,505,000
(equals) Retail Spending Potential$1,815,786,480$1,855,782,360$1,885,162,620$2,024,286,540
=
5
(times) Percent of Retail Spent at Stores
x 90.5%87.5%85.7%83.7%
(equals) Resident Household Consumer Dollars$1,643,286,764$1,623,809,565$1,615,584,365$1,694,327,834
=
6
(divided by) Average Sales per Sq Ft
÷$260$250$240$250
(equals) Estimated Trade Area Demand for Retail Space (sq ft)6,946,2947,382,5697,810,1578,051,126
=
7
(less) Existing Supply of Viable Retail Space
-7,350,0007,350,0007,350,0007,350,000
(equals) Net Demand for Trade Area Retail Space (sq ft)
-404,00033,000460,000701,000
=
Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers
Source: Perkins+Will
Table 12 illustrates the methodology used to calculate retail demand in the trade area. Demand for
retail space is driven mostly by the spending power of trade area households and workers in relation to
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the supply of existing retail space. The trade area is defined based on the location of competitive
outside the trade area is limited.
According to Table 12, there currently is an oversupply of retail space in the trade area. Although future
household growth will increase the demand for retail goods and services in the trade area, changing
retail dynamics suggest that the amount of retail square feet needed per household will decline over
time. This means that it will take close to 10 years of household growth in order to balance the existing
supply of space with consumer dollars in the trade area. It should be noted that this methodology does
not consider how much of the existing retail supply is functionally obsolete. Due to the changes noted
above, it is too difficult to determine what types of space will become functionally obsolete in the near
future. Regardless, what is known is that retail properties that are highly accessible, highly visible, have
lots of windows, and have spaces that can be easily divided or consolidated have withstood the test of
time.
It is also important to note that the retail demand calculation, unlike the housing demand and office
demand calculations, does not specify how much growth in demand can be captured in the study area.
This is because a major user in the study area is the Maplewood Ma
regional shopping centers. Therefore, it is assumed that the study area is the preeminent retail location
within the trade area. As a result, the purpose of the calculation is to help understand how the
underlying changes in the trade area household base and workforce may impact the support for the
existing retail in the study area.
OFFICE DEMAND
Unlike housing and retail, which are built forms that help meet basic human needs (i.e., shelter, food,
and clothing), future demand for office space cannot be forecasted based on demographic data. Instead,
employment growth is the key determinant of office space demand. However, volatile changes in the
economy be it local, national, or international -- can make predicting employment growth very
challenging. Furthermore, structural change in the economy is currently affecting the work place in such
a way that traditional office environments and the space needed for them are rapidly changing.
Table 13 displays the methodology used to calculate potential demand for office space in the study area
between 2018 and 2040. Based on job growth forecasts prepared by the Metropolitan Council and the
Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, it is anticipated that the number of
new office jobs in trade area will increase by just over 2,600 through 2040.
Office jobs are converted into office space based on the average amount of space needed per office
worker. This amount had been historically about 250 square feet per worker. However, increased
telecommuting, fiscal restraint on the part of employers, and changes in workplace design have pushed
this figure down to 150 square feet per worker. At this amount, the trade area will likely require about
100,000 square feet of new office space every five years to accommodate the projected growth.
Because the office vacancy rate in the trade area (4.4%) is below market equilibrium (6% vacancy), this
means there is no need to absorb any excess office space before any appreciable demand is generated
for new speculative office space.
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Not all of the calculated demand, however, can be captured in one location since it takes into
consideration all types of office jobs created by all types of businesses, many of which have different
needs and demands for their office space. It has been estimated that due to the stu
of amenities (retail and recreational) and access to the regional highway system that it would be in a
position to capture up to 30 percent of this demand (about 30,000 square feet every five years) if land
was made available for new development.
Table 13: Study Area Office Demand Calculation
2018-20232024-20302030-2040
1
Forecasted Trade Area Job Growth=5,2004,4006,300
2
Percentage of New Jobs that will be Office-Based
x
Forecasted New Office-Based Jobs=8637301,046
3
Average Square Feet per Worker
x150150150
Office Space Need Based on Future Office Employment Growth=129,500109,600156,900
4
Excess Office Space that Needs to be Absorbed
-000
Demand for New Downtown Office Space through 2030 (sq ft)=130,000110,000157,000
5
Proportion Capturable in the Study Area
x
Demand for New Office Space in the Study Area (sq ft)=39,00033,00054,950
1
Metropolitan Council; Perkins+Will
2
As of 2015, 16.6% of all trade area jobs were classified as "office" jobs based on the US Census's North American
Industry Classification System (NAICS). Any new employment growth in the trade ara is assumed to be at this proportion
of office vs. non-office jobs.
3
Historically, office space per worker has averaged 250 square feet. However, many newer office buildings are being
designed for 150 square feet per worker because of continuing advancements in telecommunications that facilitate
working remotely, a growing preference for open floorplans, and opportunities for cost savings.
4
According to CoStar, the trade area currently has close to 200,000 square feet of vacant space. This is a 4.4% vacancy rate.
Assuming market equilibrium is around 6% vacancy, there is no need to absorb excess supply before the market can
support new multi-tenant office space.
5
Given the central location of the study area within the trade area and the potential for existing retail and recreational
amenities of the study area to attract employers, it is estimated that the study area could capture as much as 30% of the
trade area demand for new office space. It is assumed that capture rates would increase over time as the study area
adapts to market dynamics that will add value to its location.
Source: Perkins+Will
Key Findings
Overall, the short and long-term market demand for new development in the study area has some
positive signs but that the reality of a rapidly changing marketplace will require property owners and
other stakeholders to stay ahead of fast moving trends and be in a position to seize opportunities
quickly. If not, missed opportunities will compound on one another and potentially prevent any changes
that would make a difference. This should come as no surprise to those who pay close attention to the
retail industry. Nevertheless, a broad statement proclaiming the potential of an area like the north End
of Maplewood masks the fact that opportunity is not evenly dispersed throughout the study area.
Differences in market demand can be based on a variety of factors, such as location, type of land use,
market timing, competition, to name but a few.
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Previous chapters provided data and analysis on a variety of market trends that influence the
development potential of the study area. These chapters included a review of the locational
characteristics of the North End study area, socio-economic characteristics of the
and the broader metropolitan region, analysis of various real estate markets relevant to the study area,
and a summary of interviews with real estate experts familiar with the study area and northeast metro
area. Based on the analysis included in these previous chapters, the following are key findings and
conclusions regarding important market trends affecting the North End study area.
The North End study area is the key node of activity in the northeast metro. With over two million
square feet of retail space, over 1,000 units of housing, and almost 5,000 jobs, the study area is a vital
economic generator. Moreover, recent and planned transportation investments, including the Bruce Vento
Trail, a Metro Transit Center, and the Rush Line BRT, will only serve to increase connectivity to and from the
study area, which will position it to continue to be a key node of activity well into the future.
demand for a variety of real estate uses, including new multifamily housing, new retail concepts
that will likely emerge in an increasingly digital world, and more traditional and medical office
space that will be needed to support a growing and aging population. Based primarily on growth
forecasts for the trade area, the North End study area could potentially support up to 2,200 new units of
housing, over 120,000 square feet of new office space, and significant rehabilitation and reconfiguration of its
retail existing structures.
The trade area population is older than the metro area. As the number of older adults continues to
grow this will affect the need for more housing with services, access to medical care, access to healthy
activities, and reduced levels of spending on certain retail categories, such as entertainment, apparel, and fast
casual dining.
Although older adults are increasing in the trade area, persons that are prime child bearing age
(25 to 34) grew at a faster rate in Maplewood and the trade area compared to the metro area
from 2010 to 2016. This will boost the number of children in the coming years and increase demand for
larger housing styles (3BR+) and spending in most retail categories.
Homeownership has been on the decline since 2000 in the trade area as well as across the region.
This is due to a variety of reasons, including changes in the mortgage industry brought on by the 2008-09
recession, recent demographic shifts favoring age groups with the propensity to rent, rising home prices
making homeownership unobtainable for many households, and greater interest in living in neighborhoods
with a high level of walkability, which requires denser forms of housing that are often rented and not owned.
Incomes in the trade area are, on average, slightly below those of the metro area. More
importantly, since 2000, the rate of increase in the trade area has lagged behind the metro area rate of
increase. This will be seen as a barrier to investment among many private developers, especially those that are
risk-averse. Of particular interest, is the income trends among younger households (those under age 45) and
older households (those age 65 and older). Incomes among younger households are not keeping with other
age groups. Meanwhile, older households are experiencing income increases well ahead of all other age
groups. This dynamic has the potential to create a significant cultural gap between younger and older
households, which could have political ramifications in which government investment skews more heavily
toward the benefit of older households and away from younger households.
Its growth has helped make healthcare services
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that have grown up around it to grow even more in the coming years is high. According to data from the
Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, occupations in healthcare services
account for the top three fastest growing occupations in the Twin Cities metro area through 2024.
Housing will drive demand for new development in the study area in both the short-term and
long-term. The housing market is currently exceptionally strong and indicators suggest it will stay strong for
at least a couple more years, barring an economic downturn. Rental housing in suburban markets will be
especially strong because new apartment development has been lacking for many years and is now starting to
pick up steam. However, like all real estate sectors, housing will eventually go through a down cycle.
Nevertheless, the characteristics of the study area are such that housing will continue to be the main driver of
change over time. This has to do mostly with the demand for housing at important activity nodes, but it also
has to do with the decreasing need for space in the retail and office sectors.
Housing as a main driver of change can be seen in other suburban activity nodes across the metro
area. For example, in the Southdale area of Edina over 700 market rate apartments have been developed
since 2014. Another 860 units are under construction or well through the planning process. In the Ridgedale
area of Minnetonka, 460 housing units have been recently constructed or are under development.
The primary barriers to housing development in the study area will be availability of sites and the
Conifer Ridge, the
apartment property that just opened in the study area, was built on one of the last remaining undeveloped
sites in the study area. Therefore, any future housing development will likely require the redevelopment or
repurposing of an existing property, which will be dependent on property owners to sell their property to a
developer or take on the development themselves. As for testing the market support for new housing,
according to CoStar, Conifer Ridge is nearing stabilized occupancy after being open less than a year. This rate
of absorption will be noticed by the development community, and, unless management was offering
significant concessions in order to fill units quickly, the asking rents (at more than $1.70 per square foot) will
also attract interest.
The greatest housing need is for workforce and low-income housing. Because of rapidly rising housing
costs, this is a growing need across the metro area and not just in the trade area. The challenge, of course, is
that the target market cannot afford rents that would make a project financially feasible, unless there some
type of public assistance that can help close the financial gap. Assistance can come a variety of forms. For
example, financial assistance can come in the form of tax-increment financing (TIF), tax abatement, grants, or
help with site acquisition and/or clean-up costs. Regulatory assistance can come in the form of streamlining
the approval process or allowing density bonuses or other incentives for including below market units.
Housing for seniors will be needed as well given the aging of the population in the trade area.
There are several levels of senior housing currently in the study area. The newest is Maple Hill Senior Living,
which is an assisted living and memory care facility that was previously a hotel. The greatest demand for
senior housing in the near-term, however, will come not from persons with care needs but from Baby
Boomers, who are now entering their mid-70s. This group is looking for housing that is lower maintenance but
does not necessarily have supportive care associated with it. In some cases, an age-restriction would appeal to
this group, but many times traditional rental properties with access to trails and modern features and
amenities is the most desirable options. This target market will also desire owner-occupied, low maintenance
housing. This can be townhomes or condominiums/cooperatives. Regardless of whether the housing is owned
up will be looking for single
or rented, this gro-level living.
The future of Maplewood Mall will be extremely important to the remainder of the study area
and its ability to attract investment and support redevelopment. The mall has been an icon for the
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northeast metro for over 40 years. It defines the area and gives it a sense of identity. For good reason, it
attracts thousands of people per day for shopping, dining, recreation, and employment. However, the
enclosed shopping mall is at a crossroads. The business model behind the design is changing. Department
stores no longer can serve as the anchors that draw visitors. Therefore, new anchors, new uses, and
potentially new designs will be necessary for survival. The development community is paying close attention
to the choices mall owners make. If they feel the adaptations are inadequate this will affect their decisions to
invest in the study area.
Any repositioning of Maplewood Mall has a very thin margin for error. Sears will be closing in July
n terms of
in the bottom half when compared to the
trade areas of other metro area regional shopping districts. This puts Maplewood Mall at a greater risk than
malls located in more affluent trade areas in which there is more market depth and est
grand ideas for how a mall can successfully reposition itself. Given all the uncertainty, the most
marketable approach to any repositioning would be to assume uncertainty as a given and plan any physical
change to be as flexible and adaptable as possible.
Office uses will not drive development in the study area. Instead, the demand for office space will be
entirely driven by long-term growth in the household base. The northeast metro area is not a major office
district and thus lacks even a single Class A office property. As a result, the office space that does exist in the
trade area mostly satisfies local demand from small professional service firms, such as real estate agents,
financial planners, attorneys, accountants, etc.
When office market conditions in the trade area are supportive of new development, the study
area should be considered a priority location. It has many of the amenities employers are looking for to
help with worker attraction and retention (i.e., proximity to shops, restaurants, trails, and transit). Currently,
the office vacancy rate in the trade area is tight (less than 4.5% compared the metro area rate of 8.0%) and
rents have been on an upward trend in the last three years. This suggests that there may be pent-up demand
in the market for a small office building (under 30,000 square feet).
Medical office space is an important niche in the study area and should be evaluated for how the
clustering of activities and specialties could be leveraged into new opportunities for growth
and/or development. There are 14 medical office buildings in the study area with a combined total of over
500,000 square feet. This concentration of space means that there is an unusually strong cluster that anchors
a trade area in which 22 percent of all office space is in medical office buildings. To illustrate how strong a
cluster this is, across the metro area that proportion is only six percent.
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Maplewood City CouncilMaplewood MAPLEWOOD, MN / JULY 23, 2018
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PurposeMethodologyKey FindingsTakeawaysNext Steps
01 / 02 / 03 / 04 / 05 /
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olicy makers with data to
Understand the drivers of changeProvide stakeholders and phelp make informed decisions
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surrounding region
area and the
(e.g., amount, cost, condition, etc.)
, developers, brokers, landowners,
-vis foreseeable trends
Analyze the study area and its locationDefine a market or trade areaAnalyze socio-economics of the trade (i.e., Ãmarket demandÄ)Analyze supply of real estate by typeInterview real estate
experts (e.g.community development staff, etc.)Quantify future demand vis-à
1.2.3.4.5.6.
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Sources: Metropolitan Council; Perkins+Will
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Total Households = 8HHs w/Incomes over $100k = 12Vacancy Rate = 12Quoted Lease Rate = 14
14 retail districts in the metro area with over 2 mil sfStudy Area rankings:
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they did 10
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Trade Area is a not a major office submarketVacancies and rents are right direction, but employers need far less space per worker than years agoThe suburban to a mixed-use, neighborhood-amenity
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will
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walkability, transit accessibility,
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HousingEducationOfficesGovernment services
interest in living in activity
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percharged right now,
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is long-term
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Innovative food conceptsHealth and well beingPetsMarketing to emerging demographic groupsEntertainment/event programming
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